UK wholesale natural gas prices turned bullish on the open Thursday as the UK gas system was seen short, with further support offered for the NBP curve as oil prices rose further in overnight trade.
National Grid 10:00 am (0900 GMT) forecasts put UK gas demand for Thursday at 239 million cu m, 37 million cu m higher than the seasonal norm, with physical flows lagging behind at 226 million cu m/d.
As a result of the short system, within-day and day-ahead both increased in value to be seen trading at 29.40 pence/therm and 29.50 p/th respectively Thursday morning from the Wednesday day-ahead assessment of 28.70 p/th.
Norwegian gas flows into the UK National Transmission System fell to a mere 74 million cu m/d Thursday morning, according to Norwegian gas operator Gassco, split between Easington and St. Fergus at 23 million cu m/d and 51 million cu m/d respectively.
Langeled flows remain constrained by maintenance work at Easington with a 41 million cu m/d restriction in place until the end of Sunday's gas day, with an unplanned outage at Karsto reported overnight.
UK gas production looks set to be lower day on day, with flows via Barrow falling to zero late Wednesday in addition to Dimlington throughput ceasing early Thursday.
Regasification from the Dragon LNG terminal fell back to zero early Thursday, with South Hook sendout rates running at 38 million cu m/d.
The Al Khattiya and the Tembek are both set to berth at South Hook before the end of the month, with several potential further Qatari deliveries at the beginning of May.
Imports from the Netherlands were running at 15 million cu m/d Thursday morning, with IUK 10:00 am export nominations at 20 million cu m.
Withdrawals from the long-range Rough storage facility were running at 14 million cu m/d -- withdrawal maintenance was extended into next month by Centrica Storage Wednesday with a 12 million cu m/d reduction in the 41 million cu m/d maximum withdrawal capacity until May 12.
In addition, the 100% unavailability of both injection and withdrawal capacity was altered Wednesday to between the gas days of May 25-29, pushed back by nine days.
A further recovery in oil prices overnight in addition to the firmer prompt led to longer-term NBP contracts posting gains in early exchanges.
Front-month May was dealt at 28.30 p/th, with Winter 16 and Summer 17 changing hands at 34.10 p/th and 31.05 p/th respectively.
