The CIF ARA thermal coal spot market is likely to face increased competition from liquefied natural gas in the future, as global LNG supply increases and coal import taxes work in gas' favor, market sources say.
According to market participants, a large supply of LNG going forward could "compete aggressively" with coal in the spot market.
CIF ARA 15-60 day thermal coal spot price was assessed by Platts at $47.50/mt Tuesday, which compares to spot prices of $61.40/mt around the same time last year.
A Northwest European utility trader remarked that "the expected glut of LNG supply in the next few years" should dampen CIF ARA prices.
Macquarie analyst Stefan Ljubisavljevic told Platts that utilities in the UK were already using gas over coal, with switching "not too far away" in Europe either, which would further pressure coal prices.
"Looking at the environment...fossil fuels are competing for favor and demand in a small competition space," he said. "Coal demand has already peaked and looks to decrease further." According to Platts data, the monthly average of the Platts Northwest Europe marker for delivered spot LNG has fallen 43.18% by February on year to $4.109/MMBtu compared to $7.232/MMBtu in the same month last year.
This was largely the result of stable to weak global demand while new production came online in the Pacific basin, primarily in Australia and Papua New Guinea. Macquarie said in February presentation there was about 140 million mt/year of new liquefaction capacity expected to 2020, increasing capacity in the LNG industry by almost 50%, of which only half will be sold to true end-users, resulting in a large overhang.
On a fundamental basis, the LNG market is expected to remain long for the foreseeable future as more production continues to ramp up in the face of stable demand.
As of February 2016, data from Platts analytics unit Eclipse Energy showed that supply was already pushing ahead of demand. LNG supply was shown to be at approximately 1 Bcm/d, while demand was lower at around 953 million cu m/d. Eclipse data showed that by the beginning of 2020, global LNG production is expected to hit 1.389 Bcm/d, while demand is only likely to hit 1.079 Bcm/d This is the result of not just new LNG production projects ramping up in the Pacific, but also the slew of US LNG export terminals coming on line by the end-2019.
"The net result is that by 2019, LNG could be oversupplied by about 70 million mt/year , which is about 190 million mt of coal equivalent," according to the Macquarie presentation, with Ljubisavljevic adding that the majority of LNG could come to Europe, which would displace a vast amount of coal.
CHANGING LNG MARKET DYNAMICS
Current market expectations are that most of the volumes that could potentially be shipped from the US LNG projects will end up on the shores of Europe, with demand in Asia likely to be filled by the new projects in Australia.
As a result, most market participants expect limited inter-basin trade, due to the lack of arbitrage opportunities between two well-supplied basins.
"The idea is that there will be less cross-basin LNG flows. During the period of high demand in Asia, we had Atlantic basin supply going to the Pacific market, but with Australian output growing and going to Asia, that means there are less buyers in Asia for Atlantic cargoes," said one LNG market source
The delivery of cargoes into Europe as a balancing point for marginal LNG cargoes has already begun in the face of increasing production in the Pacific Basin. With new projects in Papua New Guinea and Australia coming online last year, cargo flows shifted to the Atlantic, with Europe taking 5.3% more LNG in 2015 compared to the previous year, according to Platts data.
This was largely led by Qatari cargoes arriving in the UK, where Qatargas owns capacity at the South Hook LNG terminal. With US LNG production ramping up in 2016, this is expected to grow, despite stagnating demand for gas in Europe, this adding downward pressure to both LNG and gas pricing in the region.
Ljubisavljevic said in terms of market where switching from coal to LNG could emerge quickly, Europe and South Korea were countries to watch.
"If LNG pricing is resilient, it will not be a big deal yet, but we are seeing big volumes coming this year and an increase in the five-year view -- it will be a gradual process," he said.
COAL TAX IMPACT
Analysts at Macquarie said competition from LNG would be heightened in countries that imposed tax on coal imports or which have a price for carbon, adding that "Europe is the main candidate; gas is already more profitable than coal in the UK."
Platts prices indicate that a 35% efficient coal-fired power plant is out of the money, with the season-ahead UK clean dark spread with carbon price support at minus GBP2.70/MWh (minus $3.83/MWh). In comparison, the season-ahead UK clean spark spread with carbon price support is GBP1.77/MWh for plants with a 45% efficiency.
The UK hiked its Carbon Price Support mechanism from GBP9.55/mt of carbon in 2014-15 to GBP18.08/mt in 2015-16 which came into effect April 1, making it more expensive to procure and burn thermal coal. The UK aims to close all remaining coal-fired power stations by 2025, with five UK coal-fired plants closing during the November 2015-March 2016 period alone.
In Europe, to increase the efficiency of coal-fired power plants in the Netherlands, the Dutch government ruled that plants not running at a net efficiency of 28% by January 2016 and 40% by July 2017 must pay a Eur14.40/mt coal tax, while plants that met the new standards would be exempt. This resulted in three plants being taken offline at the end of 2015, reducing available capacity by 1.6 GW, with a further 1 GW capacity set to close before July 1, 2017.
Spanish utility Iberdrola has also pledged to reduce its use of coal-fired power generation significantly by 2020 to 1.3% of its total output, down from an 8.8% share in 2015.
For now, coal-fired power generation remains economically sound in Germany, with a year-ahead German clean dark spread price at Eur5.62/MWh ($6.22/MWh) Tuesday for plants with 45% efficiency, while the year-ahead clean German spark spread price is at minus Eur7.22/MWh for plants with 50% efficiency.
The main factor hindering coal-burn in Germany recently has been strong renewable energy, particularly from wind-powered generation, rather than natural gas.
