Downward pricing concerns among the US ferrous scrap dealer base eased Wednesday, just a few days before the March buy week, expected to begin Monday.
Tight scrap flows, steady demand from East Coast exporters and early mill indications for their March scrap programs have cooled most threats of a possible fall in March scrap prices.
"Flows are so bad I think if mills try and push the market down, they will not be able to," one dealer said. "Domestic mills that need material have no shot at lowering prices in the Northeast area."
Some dealers reported East Coast exporters as aggressively seeking domestic scrap. "Exporters are looking for sideways tons already," one dealer said.
Some mills are giving some suppliers early indications they will likely leave scrap pricing unchanged in March. Slow inbounds into dealer yards also have some suppliers behind on February shipments.
"We had to push back the shipment date on a barge to next week," a dealer said. "We don't have the material in the yard."
Mills had been expected to try to push scrap prices down due to weak finished steel order entry, numerous planned mill outages in March and weather-related improvements to scrap flows.
"The market can't be down theoretically, there is no scrap," another dealer said. "But shutdowns at [mills] are concerning."
Market sources also report about seven bulk cargoes of scrap have been imported to the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico already this year.
"Scrap still appears to be very tight even with the import cargoes," one Southeast dealer said. "My early read is sideways."
Sources expect trading to begin on Tuesday. Platts maintained its daily shredded scrap assessment on Wednesday at $190-$200/lt delivered Midwest mill.