Gas has a limited role as a "bridging fuel" to a low carbon future in the UK and without carbon capture and storage the scope for its use in 2050 is little more than 10% of the 2010 level, according to new research launched Tuesday by the UK Energy Research Centre.
"Without CCS, there is little scope for gas use in power generation beyond 2030 and it will need to be steadily phased out over the next 35 years, and almost entirely removed by 2050," Professor Jim Watson, Director of the UKERC, said.
Any new CCGT gas-fired power stations built to replace coal plants will have to operate at very low load factors in the 2030s and beyond unless they are retrofitted with CCS, and it is unlikely investors will be willing to build this capacity without strong policy incentives in place, the report said.
All coal-fired power generation is scheduled to be removed by 2025, so if the government is unwilling to support CCS, it leaves a difficult question for policy makers of where the capacity will come from, the report said.
"This represents a major challenge in relation to the decarbonization of domestic heat, and undermines the economic logic of investing in new CCGT gas plants rather than low- or zero-carbon generation in the first place," Watson said.
"Alternatives to the use of gas outside the power sector, particularly in heating homes, need to be explored urgently. It's not clear that current policies will achieve this, and we need a much clearer vision of the future role for gas in the UK's low carbon energy system," Paul Ekins, Professor of Energy and Environment Policy, UCL Energy Institute, said.