Increased natural gas prices boosted Midcontinent Independent System Operator wholesale power prices from December to January, but milder-than-normal temperatures and low demand helped keep MISO power prices below those of January 2015, stakeholders learned Tuesday.
Real-time locational marginal prices averaged $22.14/MWh this January, compared with $20.65/MWh in December and $28.19/MWh in January 2015, according to a report presented during Tuesday's Informational Forum by Jeff Bladen, MISO executive director for market services.
Gas prices in the region broke an 11-month trend of decreases by rising at the Henry Hub and Chicago city-gates, Bladen said. At the Henry Hub, spot natural gas averaged $2.30/MMBtu this January, compared with $1.92/MMBtu in December and $2.99/MMBtu in January 2015. At the Chicago City-gates, the spot price averaged $2.32/MMBtu in January, up from $2/MMBtu in December but down from $3.09/MMBtu in January 2015.
"Temperatures were slightly above normal," Bladen said. "Peak ... load was down about 8% from the prior year."
The number of heating degree days this January was up about 61% from December, but down about 3% from January 2015.
MISO's load peaked at 98.2 GW on January 19, compared with a peak of 106.5 GW in January 2015. MISO real-time energy totaled 58.4 TWh in January, up from 54 TWh in December but down from 60.3 TWh in January 2015.
Bladen also noted that MISO set a new all-time wind generation record of 12.6 GW on January 27. The previous record, on November 19, was 12.6 GW.
John Bear, MISO president and CEO, reported that the independent system operator is continuing to analyze how MISO states might comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan. The US Supreme Court stayed the plan's implementation on February 9, pending the outcome of a challenge to the law by 26 states in federal district court, alleging the CPP is not authorized by law.
"The only thing that we could do that would be bad is not to continue to plan," Bear said.
Designed to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 32% from 2005 levels by 2030, the plan provides two options on how emissions cuts would be measured. If states choose the "rate-based" method, they would measure the CO2 that their existing generators emit, in tons/MWh generated. The other option would entail converting the rate-based goal to the tonnage they would be allowed to emit over a time period, known as the "mass-based" method.
The purpose of MISO's analysis is not to make recommendations but to provide market participants information about how various scenarios might affect the market, Bear said.
"Under our current capacity trends, all of the current MISO states have a mass-based compliance advantage," Bear said.
MISO is also working to change its capacity market from a single annual auction to two seasonal auctions, one for winter and another for summer, Bear said, adding that he hopes to have filed this new tariff language at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in the second quarter.
