Turkish spot prices of polyvinyl chloride rose $18/mt Wednesday to $698/mt CFR Turkey after nine months of continued declines.
The increase came after Turkish national petrochemicals producer Petkim raised its list prices of PVC $15/mt, which a Petkim source confirmed Monday.
The rise was prompted by tight supply, the source said. It was the first increase since prices started declining in May.
Low prices have weighed on deliveries from Europe, a main source of shipments. The short-term outlook is now bullish.
"March prices seem to increase. However, nobody knows at what level," a trade source said Thursday. "Producers in the US and Europe are holding volumes tight to boost prices."
Demand was weak through H2 2015 and into 2016 on a political hiatus, security concerns and a weak economy, sources said.
Prices touched a multi-year low of $680/mt CFR Turkey at the start of February.
"We are tired of the lack of discipline," an official from European producer Kemone said February 5. "Everybody is complaining about poor demand, which is probably true, although many have simply got used to unsustainable growth rates. Those people are now overreacting."
"This [price] increase is not due to better demand but to a limited number of import offers due to unwillingness of Europeans to offer to Turkey," a trader said Thursday. "An upward trend is still regarded doubtful."
Tighter supply has been exacerbated by increased anti-dumping levies on German material introduced in July, a production source said earlier this month.
The long-term outlook for Turkish demand is unclear.
"The US has raised interest rates and is likely to do so through 2016," Vaughan Phillips, an associate at political risk consultancy GPW said last month.
"More foreign investors are going to look at the Turkish economy with increasing scrutiny and they will be put off by questions surrounding the security situation, President [Tayyip] Erdogan's commitment to economic reform and the independence of the Central Bank," he added.
The Turkish Lira has shown considerable volatility since Platts started assessments at the end of 2014. The US dollar strengthened 25.49% against the Lira over the course of 2015. In 2016 the dollar has weakened against the Lira 0.83%.
