Despite developments that seem encouraging for anti-Qadhafi rebel forces in Libya, the waiting game will likely continue for US oil companies, companies and market observers said Tuesday.
Asked when US companies might start returning personnel and restarting their Libya operations, Oppenheimer analyst Fadel Gheit said in an e-mail: "I would say about 30 days after the fall of the regime."
Oil exports from the Qadhafi-controlled western Libya have been banned under EU and international sanctions. But "theoretically one could construct a situation where you could extract oil from Eastern Libya" without dealing with the Libyan state-owned oil company, said Bill Reinsch, president of the Washington, DC-based National Foreign Trade Council. But "I'm not aware of any [US] companies that have gone down that road," Reinsch said.
Earlier today, Platts reported that a Suezmax tanker is due to load a cargo of crude in the rebel-controlled part of eastern Libya, the first such export since April, sources said. News agency AFP later reported that rebels tried to push Qadhafi's army westward out of firing range of the oil town of Brega on Tuesday.
US oil companies with Libya exposure include Hess, Marathon Oil, ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum and ConocoPhillips. In an e-mail, Marathon spokesman John Porretto said Marathon "continues to comply with all US sanctions, and our oil and gas operations remain suspended at this time."
"In the interest of the safety of our employees, which is the company's top priority, we would not send personnel back into the country until we could assure the situation was stable and secure," Porretto said.
"Our expectation is that there likely has been some damage to our assets, but it is still too early to assess the impact," he said.
Hess declined to comment and an Oxy spokeswoman said in an e-mail: "We are not aware of any new developments in Libya. The US has implemented sanctions on Libya, and we are complying with them. We have nothing further to offer."
John McLemore, a ConocoPhillips spokesman, said in an e-mail that the company, is "not in any discussions that I am aware of."
ExxonMobil spokesman Patrick McGinn said in an e-mail that he had no new information on Libya and that "we do not discuss security related issues." ExxonMobil, which has exploration licenses in Libya, declared force majeure on them in March.
The exposure of US companies operating in Libya before the start of the civil strife there ranged from 2.4% to 16.8% of their oil and liquids production, according to numbers previously provided by Gheit.
Hess produced about 23,000 b/d of Libyan oil, or 7.5% of the company's total oil and liquids production, while Marathon produced 46,000 b/d in Libya, 16.8% of its total oil and liquids output, Gheit said last February.
About 7% of ConocoPhillips' production portfolio was Libya-generated at 46,000 b/d, and about 2.4% of Occidental Petroleum's portfolio is Libya-sourced at about 13,000 b/d, Gheit said.
