Flat-rolled prices stayed stable Wednesday as the market entered the Christmas holiday with buy-side sources expecting more price clarity once January arrives.
Platts maintained its daily hot-rolled and cold-rolled coil assessments at $375-$400/st and $520-$530/st, respectively. Both prices are normalized to a Midwest (Indiana) ex-works basis.
A Midwest service center source said a mini-mill had agreed that January HRC at $380/st was "doable at sufficient tonnage (maybe 1,000 st)," but said they were still sitting back a bit to see how the spot market develops.
He added that another mill had agreed to sell HRC at $360/st last week for December delivery, but had indicated they will be at $380/st for January. The mill struggled to fill December's order book, which gave the service center source some concerns about HRC going into January.
One buy-side source agreed producers "continued to muddy the waters, as they have still been selling December [HRC] at a discounted number" and has seen as low as $350/st for December. But the buyer said a producer was advertising $400/st for January.
He said the market "probably will not know much until after the New Year" as most mills he had spoken to "believe they can get the price to a minimum of $380/st for HRC and will try to push the whole increase."
Both the service center and buy-side source indicated hot-dipped galvanized pricing was faring better than HRC, as one producer's domestic lead times are stretched into March. The buy-side source added the mill was "fetching $520-$530/st with ease."
A second service center source still was skeptical of higher prices lasting and said "all the mills made their deals and closed their 2015 books. It's Christmas, then New Years. The domestics raised prices and padded their order books to make it look like the market magically gained strength. I'm figuring in 30 days, more magic will occur and they will be back in the market looking for tons."
Another buyer also questioned the strength of mill order books. "I don't think the mills have orders, but they're so hopeful for better pricing in January that they're not being as aggressive as their book would warrant," he said.
