The global treatment market for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) will rise at a steady Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.9% from $9.2 billion in 2014 to $11.2 billion in 2021, according to new analysis from business intelligence provider GBI Research.
The COPD therapeutics market landscape over the forecast period will be characterised by the sales erosion of leading brands.
Yasser Mushtaq, a senior analyst GBI Research, commented: “Currently, the market is dominated by three brands, namely Pfizer’s Spiriva, GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK’s) Advair and AstraZeneca’s Symbicort, which have all generated multi-billion dollar revenues to date.
“The patents for these leading brands have either expired or will do very soon, leaving the market open to generic competition, which will impact negatively on these brands’ sales figures.”
GBI Research’s report also notes that despite the patent expirations for key therapies, the market will see the approval of multiple high-profile products from 2015. However, the majority of these will represent addition-in-class products, which will likely only offer incremental improvements over existing ones.
GSK, AstraZeneca and Chiesi Farmaceutici are all developing such products, which include fixed-dose combination treatments, including three triple combinations. There are however, first-in-class products also in development, the most notable of which, GSK’s mepolizumab, is expected to launch in 2017 and will generate sales of approximately $1.7 billion by 2021.
Generic alternatives will potentially drive down prices in the COPD treatment market
Mushtaq continued: “The combined effect of a large number of product approvals and generic alternatives entering the COPD treatment market will increase competition and potentially drive down prices.
“The market, which used to be dominated by only a few brands, will become more fragmented and will see the introduction of various brands with similar characteristics.
“Currently, none of the available therapies have been shown to modify long-term disease progression, leaving a strong need for a disease-modifying therapy that targets the natural history of the disease. This presents an attractive opportunity for major pharma players.”
