World oil consumption is expected to rise by 1.32 million b/d in 2012 as the global economy expands by 4.1%, boosting demand for OPEC crude, OPEC said Tuesday in its latest monthly oil market report.
Global oil demand is expected to average 89.5 million b/d in 2012, up from 88.18 million b/d in 2011, OPEC said.
Growth is expected to remain strong in China, the world's second-largest oil user, where demand is seen rising to 10.09 million b/d, up 520,000 b/d or 5.4% from this year's 9.57 million b/d.
Other demand growth is expected to come from non-OECD economies in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, with consumption in the developed economies of the OECD relatively stable at 46.25 million b/d, up marginally from 46.21 million b/d this year.
On the supply side, oil production from non-OPEC countries is expected to rise to 53.57 million b/d next year, up 680,000 b/d from this year's average of 52.89 million b/d, OPEC said.
Growth in production next year is expected to be supported by Brazil, Colombia, the US, Canada and the former Soviet Union, partially offset by continuing declines from Norway, the UK and Mexico.
Oil output from the world's top producer Russia is expected to rise by 30,000 b/d to 10.23 million b/d next year.
Production of natural gas liquids by OPEC countries is seen rising to 5.65 million b/d in 2012, up from 5.29 million b/d in 2011, with the additional volume coming from Algeria, Iran, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. With demand expected to rise faster than non-OPEC supply next year, the resulting call on OPEC crude is seen climbing to 30.28 million b/d, up from 30 million b/d this year.
On a quarterly basis, OPEC estimates the call on its own crude at 31 million b/d in the third quarter of this year and 30.69 million b/d in the fourth, and then at 29.83 million b/d, 28.9 million b/d, 31.33 million b/d and 31.04 million b/d in the four quarters of 2012.
