The global tin market is set for a 6,000 mt deficit in 2015, despite a decline of 3% in demand this year to 346,900 mt, the International Tin Research Institute said Thursday at its annual London Tin Investment Seminar.
While demand is expected to fall by 3% this year, and remain stable in 2016 at 346,900 mt, world tin production is likely to decline by around 8%, both in terms of refined metal and mine output.
This will result in a 2015 deficit of 6,000 mt and a 2016 deficit of 10,000 mt, according to ITRI.
The fall in demand in 2015 is expected to come from a slump in China's solder industry, with companies surveyed by ITRI in this sector reporting an average estimated decline in refined metal use of 6%.
Outside China, the companies surveyed said tin usage will be stable or increase slightly this year, and on balance see growth in 2016, notably in solder and chemicals.
"The tin market has been in deficit for eight out of the last 10 years and it appears likely that structural deficits will continue in the near future," said Peter Kettle, ITRI's markets manager.
"Looking further ahead we see the possibility of a new growth spurt in tin use, most probably driven by existing and new applications linked to energy conservation and storage."
"However this needs to be matched by investment in sustainable new supply sources which is unlikely to be forthcoming at current price levels," Kettle said.
ITRI is a membership based organization representing tin producers and smelters. Its annual survey of the industry used in its forecasts involved 148 companies this year, or 46% of the market, according to the organization.
