UK wholesale natural gas prices were mixed Tuesday with spot markets climbing in reaction to an under-supplied gas system due to higher demand, with longer-term NBP contracts easing in early trade on weaker oil prices.
National Grid demand forecasts for Tuesday at 10:00 am London time were 253 million cu m, 52 million cu m higher than the seasonal norm, with physical flows seen at 237 million cu m/d.
The within-day NBP contract, which was assessed at 39.40 pence/therm Monday, was seen trading at 40.15 p/th Tuesday morning, with day-ahead dealt at a 20 pence/th premium to the previous close at 40.35 p/th.
Demand has picked up with colder temperatures moving over the UK boosting LDZ demand in addition to firmer export demand from continental Europe.
IUK 10:00 am export nominations were 41 million cu m, up on the 24 million cu m from Monday and the 26 million cu m/d month-to-date average.
Adding to the under-supply, Norwegian gas imports via the Langeled pipeline into Easington have fallen day on day with Norwegian gas operator Gassco reporting deliveries of 51 million cu m/d, possibly related to the unplanned outage at Heimdal.
Gassco reported a volume impact of 8.5 million cu m/d for Tuesday and a 10.6 million cu m/d volume impact for Wednesday, with no restart time offered as the unplanned outage is listed as "uncertain duration."
UK indigenous gas production nominations for Tuesday are 95 million cu m, according to Eclipse Energy, an analytics unit of Platts, with a further boost due Friday with flows via Barrow set to resume.
LNG send-out from the South Hook terminal has continued at elevated levels with flow rates seen at 53 million cu m/d Tuesday morning -- Dragon send-out remained unchanged at 3 million cu m/d.
The Umm Al Amad is due to berth at South Hook Wednesday with the Mesaimeer set to follow Saturday, with several other Qatari tankers en route to Northwest Europe.
Storage facilities are nominated to inject a net 9 million cu m over the course of the day, Eclipse reports, with Rough nominations at 7 million cu m.
Longer-term NBP contracts were seemingly unaffected by the firmer prompt and the weaker value of the pound against the euro following new UK inflation data, easing as oil prices falling back below the $50/b mark.
Front-month November 15 was changing hands at an even 41 p/th Tuesday morning, 0.15 p/th lower than Monday's assessment, with Q1 16 and Summer 16 dealt at 42.45 p/th and 38.60 p/th respectively.
