Sugarcane crush volumes in the key Center-South region of Brazil in the second half of September were expected to total 40.62 million mt, according to a survey of analysts conducted Wednesday by Kingsman, an agriculture analysis unit of Platts.
The consensus estimate accounted for an average 1.7 days of crush lost to rain. Analyst expectations for cane crush spanned 39.3 million mt to 43.7 million mt.
Brazilian sugarcane industry group UNICA was expected to release its bi-monthly sugarcane harvest data in coming days.
Analysts at Platts Kingsman forecast the cane crush at 40.7 million mt.
The total of recoverable sugar (ATR) would be 149.5 kg/mt, up 0.24 kg/mt from first half of September.
According to analysts surveyed, the peak of the ATR curve was reached during the first two weeks of September at 149.26 kg/mt, down 2.92kg/mt from the peak reached on the past crop 2014/15 during the second half of September.
That scenario was forecast in the previous Platts Pre Report Survey, due to abnormal weather, flowering and the age of the cane.
In terms of ethanol production, the average of analysts' expectations pointed to total ethanol output of 2.040 billion liters, which would be an increase of 473 million liters compared with H2 September 2014.
Hydrous ethanol production was expected to reach 1.229 billion liters, up 31.90% year on year. If the estimate proved to be right the accumulated hydrous production in Center-South will reach 12.703 billion liters, up 1.44 billion liters year on year.
For H2 September, anhydrous output was expected to be 811 million liters, up 27.92% from the same period last year. The accumulated anhydrous production is expected to reach 7.50 billion liters, down 10.61% year on year.
Brazilian drivers have been benefiting from lower hydrous prices at pumps this season. Producers boosted hydrous production due to fast liquidity in the domestic market. In contrast, anhydrous production and demand decreased at levels to meet gasoline C in the domestic market. Gasoline C is a blend of gasoline A with 27% of anhydrous ethanol.
Hydrous sales in the domestic market during H2 September are expected to remain strong because hydrous remains competitive at the pump in the main consumer states of the Center-South region, despite the recent hike in ex-mill hydrous prices.
In September, hydrous prices at the pump in the six largest state consumers was, on average, 63.6% of gasoline, compared with 63.9% in August and 67.9% a year ago, according to latest data from the National Petroleum Agency (ANP).
The six states represent about 85% of domestic demand and are in the key Center-South sugarcane region.
Even with sugar future prices and weaker real versus the dollar favoring sugar production during the whole month of September, wet weather in CS Brazil hampered any possibility of increasing sugar mix.
According to a Platts survey of analysts, the sugar mix in H2 September is expected to reach 41.93%, up 7.13 percentage points year on year.
