Australia's crude oil and condensate production is forecast to dip to 25,192 megaliters (434,100 b/d) in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2011, down from 25,572 ML in the previous 12 months, according to figures released Tuesday by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.
Liquids production in the 2011-2012 fiscal year is forecast to rise to 26,856 ML, ABARES said.
The expected year-on-year decline in production in 2010-2011 is due to cyclone-related disruptions at facilities off northwestern Australia over summer, flooding in central Australia's Cooper Basin, and maintenance shutdowns at some fields. These offset increases in production from the ramp-up of the Pyrenees and Van Gogh fields off Western Australia.
The forecast 7% increase in output in 2011-2012 will follow the startup of Italian Eni's Kitan field in the fourth quarter of 2011 and Thailand-based PTT Exploration and Production's Montara/Skua project in the Timor Sea, which is scheduled for completion in the first quarter of 2012. Both those new projects are expected to pump around 35,000 b/d.
The startup of new projects in the Carnarvon and Bonaparte basins is expected to support higher oil exports in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. Australia's exports are forecast to increase by 4.9% from an estimated 19,755 ML in the current fiscal year to 20,718 ML in 2011-2012, ABARES said.
This increase in export volumes, combined with forecast higher oil prices, is expected to result in a rise in the value of Australia's oil exports to A$11.5 billion ($12.15 billion) in 2010-2011. Export values are set to climb by another 20% in 2011-2012 to A$13.8 billion.
Australia's LNG exports are expected to increase by 8% in 2010-2011 to 19.3 million mt, reflecting increased demand from Japan, South Korea and China, ABARES said.
In the following year, LNG shipments are forecast to increase 2% to 19.7 million mt, underpinned by the scheduled startup of Woodside Petroleum's 4.3 million mt/year Pluto project in March 2012. Woodside last week announced the startup of Pluto would be delayed by six months from the previous target of September 2010.
The value of Australia's LNG exports in 2010-2011 is expected to increase by 24% to A$9.6 billion, mainly reflecting higher prices and increased export volumes. For 2011-2012, forecast increased LNG demand is likely to result in higher LNG prices, helping raise the value of Australian exports by 4% to A$10 billion, according to ABARES.
