For the past year, as it entered into historic nuclear negotiations with Iran and later confronted Russia over its incursions into Ukraine, the Obama administration has repeatedly asked the US Congress not to pass sanctions legislation that could potentially undermine its leverage in these high-stakes face-offs.
But with Republicans wresting control of the Senate from Democrats for the first time since 2006, the White House may no longer be able to hold back Congress from its hawkish aims, especially if western powers fail to reach a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran by the self-imposed November 24 deadline or the security situation in Ukraine deteriorates.
Though members of both parties have criticized the administration for providing Iran some sanctions relief and for not being tough enough with Russia, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Democrat-Nevada, has been able to largely prevent sanctions-related bills from reaching the Senate floor.
The White House likely will lose such protection when Senator Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, takes the majority leader post in 2015.
Experts say that could prompt the Obama administration to reach a sanctions deal with Republican leaders, including Senator Bob Corker, who is slated to assume the chairmanship of the Foreign Relations Committee.
"While I'm sure the administration would prefer to retain complete control over the sanctions process, there may be some room for negotiation that would see [a new Russian sanctions] bill passed," said Sam Cutler, an associate at Washington-based sanctions litigation firm Ferrari & Associates.
As for Iran, the Obama administration could face "a very large risk of congressional action" if it calls for a lengthy extension of the November 24 deadline in order to be able to continue negotiating, he said.
So far, administration officials say they are focused on their jobs at hand and not worrying about the political implications of Tuesday's midterm elections.
Secretary of State John Kerry, in a briefing Wednesday with reporters in France, denied that negotiations with Iran would be complicated by new Republican leadership in Congress.
"I believe that the same substantive issues would be there regardless of who is in control of the United States Senate," he said.
DEPENDS ON THE DEAL
Corker's office declined to comment on what the senator's priorities will be as the new chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
The Tennessee lawmaker earlier this year introduced a bill that would require congressional review of any final nuclear agreement with Iran and prohibit any extensions of the November 24 deadline.
He has repeatedly criticized the preliminary agreement the US and other western powers reached with Iran in 2013, in which the US dropped its pressure on buyers of Iranian crude to reduce their purchases, in exchange for a partial freeze of Tehran's nuclear program.
Analysts with Washington-based ClearView Energy said if the November 24 deadline arrives without a deal, a Republican-led Senate in 2015 "could potentially move Iran sanctions legislation with a veto-proof, bipartisan majority."
In the event a deal is reached, a Republican-led Senate could be a stumbling block to the Obama administration's efforts to lift sanctions, if Republican leaders are dissatisfied with the terms.
But others see sanctions against Iran as unlikely to be seriously affected by the change in who controls the Senate.
Jeffrey Zucker, a Washington-based international trade attorney at Dechert LLP, said the administration likely has enough administrative powers to suspend sanctions on its own, if the Iran negotiations succeed.
And even if the Iran negotiations are extended into the new year, Congress is unlikely to use a sanctions package as a mean to thwart the Obama administration, he said.
"I think it is relatively unlikely that they will do so, with an issue as important to national security as this," he said.
David Goldwyn, the US Department of State's former coordinator for international energy affairs, said how Congress acts on Iran "depends on the deal."
"If there's a decent negotiation then I don't think there will be a lot of opposition to Obama providing some incentives to finish the deal. And if there's a perception that he's given away too much, then there's going to be significant bipartisan blowback," he said.
SANCTIONS 'THE NEW REALITY'
Meanwhile, Corker has introduced a Russian sanctions bill, co-sponsored by the current Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman, New Jersey Democrat Bob Menendez, that would go further than sanctions already imposed by the Obama administration prohibiting the use of US technology and expertise on Russian Arctic, shale and deepwater oil projects.
The bill would penalize all companies that finance Russian unconventional crude oil projects and impose sanctions on Russian gas giant Gazprom if it withholds "significant natural gas supplies from member countries of NATO or further withholds such supplies from countries such as Ukraine, Georgia or Moldova."
The bill passed the committee unanimously but has not come to the full Senate for a vote.
Several experts said they expect that bill or some new Russian sanctions legislation to be brought up by the new Senate leadership to demonstrate ownership of the issue, though those efforts may not capture enough votes to overcome a filibuster or Obama veto.
Kyle Davis, a Moscow-based energy attorney at Goltsblat BLP, said that in contrast to the EU, which is reliant on Russia for significant energy supplies, the US is less exposed to events in Ukraine.
"Therefore for American politicians the question of when to lift sanctions is more of a domestic political calculation subject to the election cycle," he said.
But he also noted that Republicans' traditional ties to the oil and gas industry may give them pause in imposing further sanctions on Russia's energy sector. ExxonMobil, BP and Shell are among the majors that have joint ventures with Russian companies to explore and drill there.
"If the situation stabilizes in the meantime, it may not be a button that the Republicans will want to push," Davis said.
Company officials and analysts alike have become more pessimistic, with most now anticipating that sanctions will continue into 2015 at the least.
"Actions taken recently by Russian oil companies have been taken with the view that sanctions are the new reality," Grigory Birg, an analyst at Moscow-based Investcafe, said Wednesday. "Lukoil has reduced its investment program for next year, it seems pretty clear that Rosneft and Novatek will receive some government support and companies are looking into establishing oil services divisions."
