Tri-State Generation and Transmission is forecasting faster-than-expected load growth and may need new resources later this decade depending on how fast demand increases for the Colorado wholesale cooperative's members.
Under a baseline scenario, Tri-State expects to need 158 MW in 2024 followed by 200 MW of reciprocating engine resources two years later, according to the cooperative's resource plan update, filed Friday with state regulators. The resource plan also calls for 200 MW wind in 2023 and another 200 MW a year later to meet state requirements in Colorado and New Mexico.
Under the baseline scenario, without additional demand-side management or energy efficiency resources, Tri-State said it would likely secure additional capacity through several options, including short-term market purchases of capacity and energy, buying capacity rights from independent power producers, or buying seasonal or annual generating capacity from regional utilities with more than they need. The needs could also be meet with DSM and energy efficiency.
But if load grows faster than expected, the cooperative could need 200 MW in 2017 and about 320 MW of combined cycle resources a year later.
The cooperative said it has made no firm commitments on the timing, technology, size or location of new conventional power plants.
Its forecast indicates that member load, now at about 2,800 MW, will grow more quickly than expected in the cooperative's resource plan update last year. Tri-State now expects load to grow by 2.9% annually and sales to increase by 2.6% a year. Over next five years, Tri-State expects member load to rise by an annual rate of 4.1%.
Since it filed its last resource plan update a year ago, Tri-State has made one major resource change. The cooperative entered into a 25-year power purchase agreement with a NextEra Energy Resources subsidiary to buy power from the planned 150-MW Carousel wind farm in Kit Carson County, Colorado.
Tri-State also said it is likely it will need to build more transmission facilities to support future renewable generation projects.
Tri-State's 44 members serve parts of Colorado, Nebraska, New Mexico and Wyoming.
