US commercial crude stocks are expected to have increased 2.8 million barrels in the reporting week that ended October 24, according to a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts Monday.
The American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly stocks data at 4:30 pm EDT (2030 GMT) Tuesday and the US Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 am EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.
The EIA five-year average shows inventories typically rising 1.9 million barrels this reporting week.
Refineries tend to enter into maintenance when summer driving season concludes, causing stocks to accumulate through late October, stabilize for a few weeks, and then draw down as demand returns in mid-November.
US crude stocks are well supplied by recent historical standards. Crude inventory rose 7.1 million barrels in the week ending October 17. At 377.7 million barrels, crude stocks were 5.3% above the EIA five-year average (2009-13).
Analysts expect US refinery utilization rates to have increased 0.22 percentage point to 86.9%. EIA data showed US refinery runs at 15.2 million b/d for the reporting week that ended October 17. The last time refineries processed more than 15 million b/d for the same reporting week was in October 2003.
GASOLINE STOCKS SEEN FALLING
US gasoline stocks likely were 350,000 barrels lower last week, according to analysts surveyed. The EIA five-year average shows inventories often decrease over this reporting week, falling 438,000 barrels.
At 204.4 million barrels for the reporting week ended October 17, US gasoline stocks were 2.2% below the EIA five-year average, after a 1.3 million-barrel draw.
Gasoline stocks on the US Atlantic Coast -- home to the New York Harbor-delivered NYMEX RBOB contract -- were at 52.2 million barrels, which was 2.4% below the EIA five-year average.
Refineries entering maintenance last week included Chevron's 243,000 b/d Richmond, California, refinery, which has a 65,000 b/d fluid catalytic cracking unit as well as a cat feed hydrotreater. The turnaround is expected to last 45 days, a source said.
In addition, Phillip 66's 247,000 b/d Sweeny refinery, located in Texas on the US Gulf Coast, restarted an FCC after being closed for five years. The FCC's capacity is 119,700 b/d.
A Shell-Pemex joint venture, the 340,000 b/d Deer Park refinery outside Houston, returned to normal operations following maintenance that began in August. Units coming back included a 67,000 FCC, traders said.
FCCs convert vacuum gasoil into gasoline and other high-end refined products. An FCC's closure could result in a gasoline stock drawdown, unless imports increase enough to offset production losses.
US distillate stocks are expected to have decreased 950,000 barrels over the latest reporting week. The EIA five-year average shows US distillate stocks typically fall 2.1 million barrels this reporting week.
The amount of distillates carried by tankers departing the US for Europe were unchanged at 180,000 mt, according to Platts cFlow ship-tracking software. Slowing exports means fewer barrels being drawn out of storage, which help stocks accumulate.
