Robert Murray, the founder and CEO of US coal miner Murray Energy, offered a gloomy view of the US thermal coal market at Platts' annual Coal Marketing Days conference in Pittsburgh Monday, saying that anyone who believes the US coal industry is poised for a comeback "doesn't understand the industry."
"There is nothing on the horizon to make me think positive about coal markets in 2015," said Murray, who delivered the keynote address at the event.
"We make our cash flow based on being right, and if anything, there is going to be a continued decline internationally and domestically," Murray said.
A passionate supporter of the US coal industry, Murray said he expects the equivalent of 230 million st of thermal coal production to come offline by 2020 as more coal-fired generating capacity is shut because of environmental regulations.
He said the majority of that shuttered coal production will come from the Powder River Basin, where output will be reduced by roughly 160 million st. He added that Northern Appalachia production is expected to decline 11 million st, while production in the Illinois Basin will decline roughly 30-40 million st.
Murray said his company will weather the downturn based on its strategy of emphasizing low-cost production at mines with truck access to scrubbed power plants.
Murray said his company will mine roughly 65 million st in 2014, and that coal will have a value of roughly $3.4 billion, or roughly $55/st. The company operates 13 longwalls and 43 continuous miners at mines in Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Illinois and Utah.
