Generation retirements could cause New York to face electricity shortfalls a year earlier than previously thought, but behind-the-meter resources could help reduce the risk of such shortfalls, new reports show.
The New York Independent System Operator's latest Reliability Needs Assessment, released Wednesday, states that without appropriate action the system will violate resource adequacy criteria in southeastern New York in 2019, compared with 2020 in the previous RNA, which was released in September 2012.
"The major driver of this change is a more than 2,000-MW decrease in the total capacity margin for the New York control area in 2019," NYISO said in a statement.
But NYISO management expects recent market-rule changes "to encourage market participants to take actions that will help meet resource adequacy needs in southeastern New York," the statement said.
"For example, capacity owners and developers are responding to investment signals resulting from the creation of a new capacity zone in the Lower Hudson Valley by taking steps to return generating units to service, restore units to their full capability or build new facilities," the statement said.
Such developments might postpone the need for more resources beyond 2019, it said.
Resources described in a separate report released Thursday, "A Review of Distributed Energy Resources," could also have an impact.
New York, which already ranks fifth in the amount of such resources, "is pursuing an array of initiatives to further increase the use of on-site power generation and storage systems," NYISO, which put out the report, said in a statement.
Distributed energy resources include generation and storage systems located on or near an end user's location can supply all or part of an end user's needs, and may deliver power to the grid, said the report, prepared by DNV GL, an international energy advisory and testing organization.
These technologies include solar, combined heat and power, microgrid, wind turbine, back-up generation and energy storage systems.
"This study underscores NYISO's commitment to work with state government leaders and the electric utility industry to improve the resiliency of the electric system and help customers to be more engaged in energy markets by efficiently integrating [distributed energy resources] with the centralized power grid," Stephen Whitley, NYISO president and CEO, said in a statement.
The RNA found that recent and proposed retirements and suspension of operations of generators is affecting the NYISO grid's transmission capacity in the Rochester, western, central, capital, and Lower Hudson Valley/New York City regions.
Potential transmission security violations, such as unexpected power system outages, could affect transmission system reliability in these regions as early as 2015, the report said.
NYISO will present the 2014 RNA results in a public forum September 29 at NYISO's Krey Corporate Center in Rensselaer, New York.
Later, NYISO will ask stakeholders to propose market-based and regulated solutions to address risks identified in the RNA.
NYISO staff will evaluate the solutions submitted and produce a Comprehensive Reliability Plan to describe how these solutions address the reliability needs identified in the RNA.
In the past, the development of the CRP has taken about six months.
