The US Energy Information Administration on Tuesday again lowered its 2014 price estimates for both WTI and Brent, due to weakening global demand and near-record US production.
In its September Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA decreased its 2014 forecasts for WTI to $98.28/b and Brent to $106/b, which is $2.17 and $2.11, respectively, below last month's estimate.
EIA forecasts WTI at $94.67/b and Brent at $103/b in 2015, $1.41 and $2, respectively, lower than last month's 2015 forecast.
The WTI discount to Brent, which averaged $11/b in 2013, is expected to average $8/b in both 2014 and 2015. EIA last month had projected the same discount for 2014, but said it would be $9/b in 2015.
Price projections continue to fall as total US crude oil production averaged 8.6 million b/d in August, the highest monthly production since July 1986, global demand weakens and increased Libyan oil exports put downward pressure on North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices, EIA said.
The agency forecasts total US consumption of motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil and jet fuel in 2014 to average 18.92 million b/d, up slightly from its 18.88 million b/d estimate last month. EIA projects demand will climb to 19.08 in 2015, up from last month's 18.98 million b/d projection.
Forecasts for consumption of motor gasoline were 8.82 million b/d in 2014 and 8.81 million b/d in 2015, up slightly from last month's estimates.
Consumption of distillate fuel oil will average 3.99 million b/d in 2014 and 4.06 million b/d in 2015, up slightly from last month's projection of 3.97 million b/d in 2014 and 4.04 in 2015.
Consumption of jet fuel is forecast to average 1.46 million b/d in 2014 and 1.45 million b/d, also up slightly from last month's estimates of 1.44 and 1.42 million b/d.
US crude oil production is expected to average 8.53 million b/d in 2014 and 9.53 million b/d in 2015, both up from last month's respective projections of 8.46 million b/d and 9.28 million b/d.
The 2015 projections near the previous US average production record of 9.6 million b/d, which was reached in 1970, EIA said.
