China's 2018 thermal coal imports are expected to plummet to half of this year's projected total of 140 million mt, Goldman Sachs said in a report Thursday, September 4.
"China has recently been overtaken by India as the single biggest importer," the bank said.
Goldman Sachs estimated India's thermal coal imports at 156 million mt this year, rising to 230 million mt in 2018.
Although China is largely self-sufficient in thermal coal and its imports account for only 3% of its current domestic consumption, it has significant influence on international seaborne prices because it accounts for 16% of the global seaborne demand for thermal coal, Goldman Sachs said.
It said China's domestic demand accounts for 53% of the world total demand for thermal coal, dwarfing the seaborne market by a ratio of 3.5 to 1.
"As a result, Chinese demand is price-sensitive and import volumes can be volatile," the bank said.
Goldman Sachs said total Pacific demand for seaborne thermal coal would be 698 million mt this year, growing to 767 million mt in 2018.
