US sheet steel prices remained flat Monday as lead times inched ever closer to the end of the year, leading some buyers to forecast price stability into the first quarter.
At least one mill has reportedly closed its September books and will not have October figures available for another week, one buyer said.
"They may just be posturing, but this is definitely a supportive situation for mill prices," he said.
A service center executive said business has been brisk, and his mill sources seemed equally busy due to a combination of steady demand and limited supply as a result of upcoming maintenance outages.
If those business conditions persist until September 1, the US Labor Day holiday, nothing is likely to change the status quo for at least several weeks afterward, he said.
A second service center executive said a mill rep recently offered him 100 st of $680/st hot-rolled coil with the possibility of getting as low as $660/st. Those numbers are likely to remain steady, he said, as attractive import deals are dwindling due to trade case chatter.
"People are starting to realize the window for foreign stuff is starting to close," he said, though he did recently hear an offer of $690/st for some cold-rolled gauges, ex-dock Chicago, from a Chinese source.
One buyer, however, said the flat-rolled market historically does not stay static for more than about six weeks, and it has been "pretty steady here for three or four weeks."
"When things stay the same, people basically think it's going to move down and they stop buying. When they stop buying, producers get nervous and cut their prices," he said. "But at the moment -- because there seems to be so little steel in the system -- everybody keeps buying. So the psychology has not been right for the prices to start falling, but the buys haven't been big enough to push it up, either."
Platts maintained its hot-rolled assessment Monday at $680-685/st and its cold-rolled assessment at $800-810/st. All prices are normalized to a Midwest (Indiana) ex-works basis.
