Setting an EU goal to improve energy efficiency by 30% by 2030 would help cut natural gas use by 115 billion cubic meters/year and gas imports by 90 Bcm/year by 2030, compared with business as usual, according to draft European Commission calculations obtained Friday by Platts.
"For comparison, gas imports from the Russian Federation were 90 Bcm in 2012," the EC said in a draft review of the EU's energy efficiency policy and future options.
"The moderation of energy demand is indeed a powerful way to reduce the EU's external energy dependency," it said. "Every additional 1% in energy savings cuts gas imports by 2.3%."
A 30% target would triple the gas savings in the buildings sector, which has the largest share of gas use, the EC said.
The EU is set to miss a non-binding 2020 target to improve efficiency by 20% by just one or two percentage points, equivalent to 20 million to 40 million mt of oil equivalent, it said.
This means there is no need for extra emergency EU legislation to achieve the target, the EC said, but it recommended that national governments focus their efforts on specific areas where extra savings are possible by 2020.
For example, "an additional 20 million mtoe of savings by 2020 can be secured by fully implicating utilities in working with their customers to obtain energy savings," it said.
Other areas include strengthening building codes and raising awareness on buildings' energy performance (15 million mtoe extra savings possible) and using the Eur23 billion ($31 billion) earmarked in the EU's 2014-2020 budget for low-carbon economy investments (potential savings not stated).
OETTINGER BACKS NON-BINDING EFFICIENCY TARGET
EU energy commissioner Gunther Oettinger wants to propose a non-binding 2030 energy efficiency target, he told reporters Wednesday in Brussels.
"It will be between 25% and 40%," he said, adding that in his view 40% was not realistic as it was too ambitious, and any target needed the support of all 28 EU countries to be successful.
"We are checking which figure is realistic and cost-effective," he said.
The EC said in the draft review that if the EU fully achieved the 2050 target, it would save 170 million mtoe between 2010 and 2020.
Saving the same amount between 2020 and 2030 would translate into a 30% efficiency target for 2030, it said.
The EC recommended in the draft that it should be left to national governments to decide their 2030 energy efficiency goals, and that the EC would check that the total commitments equaled the overall EU target.
Oettinger said Wednesday that the review would be published in July, so that EU leaders will be able to include energy efficiency in their talks on the EU's 2030 energy and climate strategy, which will also cover targets for emissions cuts and renewables use.
EU leaders have committed to decide on these targets in October. The EU already has binding emissions and renewables targets for 2020.
