The US Environmental Protection Agency's proposed carbon emissions guidelines issued Monday would have the biggest impact on Appalachian and Powder River Basin thermal coal producers, though the latter may be able to soften the impact if port capacity becomes available on the US West Coast, Moody's Investors Service said.
In a research note issued Tuesday, the ratings firm said Illinois Basin producers will likely fare better, given that they tend to serve larger baseload plants less affected by emissions regulations and which are more likely to invest in emissions-control technology.
US power plants have cut carbon emissions by 15% since 2005, the base year the EPA uses to target a 30% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030. That leaves the US power sector halfway toward the goal, but the decline is partly due to the drop in coal's share of US electricity generation.
That share could fall further as the number of coal-fired plant retirements picks up in the next few years due to the mercury emissions rules, a total that could be as much as 75 GW, Moody's said.
The EPA's new guidelines are aggressive, the report said, "but the proposed implementation time frame leaves its impact on US coal producers years away."
Based on Moody's initial analysis of the guidelines, the impact suggests a 20% reduction in coal consumption from 2013 levels by 2025, and an additional 50 GW of coal-fired plant retirements.
The US power industry consumed 856 million st of coal in 2013, according to the US Energy Information Administration. A 20% reduction by 2025 would result in annual coal consumption of roughly 685 million st.
The Moody's report suggests developments in carbon capture and storage technology could lessen the impact, though it notes that existing CCS technology remains "economically unfeasible on a large commercial scale."
