The UK's Rough gas storage facility, the country's main gas storage site, could be completely refilled by as early as the start of August, months ahead of last year, according to Platts analysis of past injection rates.
Rough storage currently holds 2.02 billion cubic meters (21,383 GWh) of gas as of April 23, according to National Grid figures.
This is about 54% full, against maximum observed winter stock levels of around 3.75 Bcm in recent years.
If Rough were to inject gas at high daily rates throughout May, June and July, following the same path as seen in some of the strongest injection seasons of recent years, then Rough could be completely full by early to mid-August.
By contrast, last year at the start of August Rough only held about 2.50 Bcm, around 67% of capacity.
Last year, a cold end to the winter in March/April 2013 left Rough completely empty in early April, requiring a long injection season to fill the facility back up ahead of the next winter.
At the end of September 2013 Rough held only 3.20 Bcm and it took continued injections across October, the first "winter" month, to take Rough up to 3.50 Bcm.
By contrast, the most recent winter saw mild weather throughout, leaving plenty of gas in storage at the end of the season in March 2014.
If storage is full by early August this year, coinciding with potential lower demand for the school holiday season, that could put pressure on spot gas prices, which at below 50 pence/therm are already at the lowest levels seen since September 2011.
Continental storage in countries such as Germany is also ahead of last year, reducing potential demand for exports from the UK.
Rough storage may take longer to refill if traders decide to slow down storage injections below the maximum potential.
During the summer 2012 injection season storage was at a high stock level in mid-April, but then remained at a fairly flat stock level until late-May as the market took a break from injections.
