China's alumina output is forecast to rise 13.8% year on year to 53.5 million mt in 2014, an analyst from state nonferrous information division Beijing Antaike said Friday.
Realized alumina output totaled 47 million mt in 2013, according to Antaike data. This exceeded a forecast of 46.5 million mt for the year, and was up from realized output of 42.14 million mt in 2012.
Antaike estimates China's alumina production capacity will increase to about 66 million mt/year by end 2014, up from about 60 million mt/year at end 2013 and 58 million mt/year at end 2012.
The higher output forecast this year is due mainly to several new refineries starting up in late 2013, the analyst said.
Shandong alumina giant Chiping Xinfa Group started up its second refinery in Shanxi in July 2013 with an initial capacity of 800,000 mt/year. The plant, called Shanxi Xinfa Chemical, is slated to have a final design capacity of 5 million mt/year. The company also operates the Shanxi Jiaokou Feimei Aluminum plant in the province, which has a design capacity of 2.4 million mt/year and is currently running at 1.2 million mt/year.
The Aluminum Corp of China, or Chalco, started partial production at its new 1 million mt/year refinery in Shanxi in the fourth quarter of 2013, the analyst said.
Also in Shanxi, Zhaofeng Aluminum started up new production lines late last year that raised its alumina capacity to 1.1 million mt/year from 400,000 mt/year. The refiner is expected to reach a full output in 2014.
"All these expansions started late last year, so their output will be mainly reflected this year," the Antaike analyst said.
"Despite the weak domestic metal prices, there's no smelter cuts yet, so demand for alumina is still there, although prices are likely to soften. This is also generally a slow period due to winter, and people are hoping the market can pick up after March," the analyst added.
