China has put forth new rules to tackle overcapacity in its solar power industry. A document released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) specifies the thresholds needed to enter the (PV) industry and is sure to keep plenty of capital at bay.
Under the new rules, access to the industry will be strictly controlled. For instance, investors who wish to enter the industry must now invest a minimum 20 percent of the value of the desired project. There are also minimum requirements for investment in research and development. Only a few domestic PV enterprises can meet the requirements, says Wang Yong, an analyst with CITIC Securities Co Ltd, so most small and medium-sized enterprises are likely to be washed out of the industry.
China's PV modules are mainly exported to Europe and the United States, and tax rebates are a big source of income for PV enterprises, which led to trade frictions with the above-mentioned importers. According to the new rules, however, unqualified PV manufacturing enterprises and projects won't enjoy export tax rebates or favorable support for domestic sales.
Before the MIIT released this latest document, investors had plenty of freedom to invest wherever and how much they wished in the country's solar power industry, leading to severe overcapacity and disorderly development. Wang says the MIIT's document is a late remedy but still welcome.
More M&As
According to the MIIT figures, total liabilities of China's top 10 PV enterprises have surpassed 100 billion yuan ($16.26 billion). In the first half of this year, 80 percent of PV enterprises suspended their production.
Meng Xiangan, vice-president of the China Renewable Energy Society, says in the past China's PV enterprises were desperately expanding their production capacity and seizing the market with low prices. Ninety-five percent of China's PV products are exported, but because of the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures adopted by the EU and the United States, such a pattern cannot be sustained and changes in the way in which the industry operates are needed.
Meng says the launch of new requirements for the solar power industry indicates that a new round of restructuring is set to begin. During this process, those enterprises with outdated technologies and a heavy debt burden may be reorganized, while those with core competitiveness will grow and become stronger.
According to a report by CITIC Securities, industrial leaders will not be affected, while small PV enterprises will likely be reorganized or acquired. Ren Haoning, a researcher of energy industry with CIConsulting, a Shenzhen-based industrial research company, says most of China's PV manufacturing enterprises are still engaged in raw material processing. For example, 50-70 percent of polycrystalline silicon products China exports to Europe and the United States are simply processed with imported raw materials. The number of polycrystalline silicon enterprises is big, but their scale is small, and only less than 10 percent of them can meet requirements specified in the MIIT's document. It is estimated that after the document comes into effect, many Chinese PV enterprises will be acquired or even shut down, which will help reduce surplus capacity.
Market situations differ
Europe is the most important market for China's solar products, comprising 90 percent of total shipments. In 2012, the EU launched anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations against China's PV products. After several rounds of negotiations, the EU agreed to stop the investigations but insisted the Chinese side sign a "price undertaking" agreement. China committed to a minimum price of 0.56 euro ($0.76) per watt and a limit to the number of exports to the EU. The agreement came into effect in August.
But the price of 0.56 euro per watt has already had a detrimental affect on China's PV exports to the EU. In September, Jiangsu-based Phono Solar Technology Co Ltd sent delegates to Europe because of a serious drop in orders, but to no avail. The situation at Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd, China's biggest PV company, isn't so bright either. "Although there are no exact figures, our orders are definitely in decline," said Wang Zhixin, the company's spokesman.
Currently 94 Chinese PV enterprises have export quotas to the EU, less than one fifth of the country's more than 500 PV enterprises.
In contrast to declining exports, the domestic market is growing. On July 15, the State Council issued its Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry. They set a goal for an increase of 15 gigawatts a year in 2013-15 for the industry and 20 gigawatts a year after 2015.
On Aug 30, the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planner, raised the subsidy standard for distributed solar power generation projects from 0.42 yuan to 1 yuan for every kilowatt-hour of electricity, which caused a rush of investment in the industry.
EGing Photovoltaic Technology Co Ltd, listed at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, announced on Sept 18 that the company will raise up to 1.23 billion yuan by a secondary public offering to invest in a 100-megawatt solar power project. Before that, China National Machinery Industry Corp obtained a 20-billion-yuan contract for 2,500-megawatt desert solar power plants across Ningxia Hui autonomous region; Aviation Industry Corp of China announced that in the next three years it will invest 3.8 billion yuan in 20 cities to build 400-megawatt solar power projects. Eight centrally administered State-owned enterprises, including China Huaneng Group, China Datang Corp and China Guodian Corp, have also launched investment plans in building solar power plants.
This isn't the first time that subsidies have caused a flurry of investment in the industry. In 2011, China announced temporary subsidies for large-scale ground PV power plants, leading many enterprises to make hasty investments in building solar power plants. Both qualified and unqualified project contractors participated in the construction upsurge, creating uneven quality.
Privately owned enterprises used to lead the PV industry, but now many State-owned enterprises have entered the sector, leading many to worry about excessive investment once again. Shen Hongwen, a researcher of new energy industries with CIConsulting, says China's PV industry is now undergoing a painful restructuring period. Many companies are faced with being wiped out, but overall restructuring will be good for the industry.
"The situation in the entire industry is much better than during the first half of the year," says Shen, "many factors restraining the sound development of the solar power industry are expected to be resolved."
