China's refined copper imports are expected to continue rising in the coming months as international sellers increasingly turn to China amid an overhang in global supply, a Chinese industry source said last Friday.
"Global copper supply is expected to rise as global demand (excluding China) will continue dipping due to a slow recovery in the global economy and increasing investment risks," Jack Yeung, a business professor at the City University of Hong Kong said.
"So the world's excess supply will flow into China," he added.
This was already evident in China's copper imports in July, which rose to a 14-month high of 410,680 mt, up 12% year on year, recent data from the General Administration of Customs showed.
Global refined copper output is forecast to exceed demand by around 415,000 mt in 2013, with the gap set to widen in 2014 as new and existing mines boost output, according to a report released in April by the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group.
European copper producer Aurubis AG also expected China's copper imports to rise over the next few months, citing an anticipated delivery of South American-origin cargoes over August-October in its report issued August 22.
Yeung also cited the price gap between London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange benchmarks, which could sustain China's demand growth for imports.
He however, noted that the country's actual copper consumption may not increase significantly in the short run, because of Premier Li Keqiang's economic tightening policies.
Added to this, a need to replenish stocks to offset lower imports earlier in the year could also spur copper imports in the coming months. "China's January-July copper imports have fallen, so implying needs for replenishment coming months," Yeung noted.
China imported 2.41 million mt refined copper and other copper products over January-July, down 16% year on year, customs figures showed.
