Data to be released by the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday should show a natural gas storage injection of 70-74 Bcf for the week ended June 28, according to a consensus of analysts.
The EIA report, normally published Thursdays, will be released at noon Wednesday due to the July 4th holiday in the US.
An injection between 70-74 Bcf would be much higher than the 41 Bcf injection for the comparable week last year and in line with the five-year average injection of 71 Bcf, according to EIA data. As a result, the 522-Bcf deficit to last year's average should shrink, while the 31-Bcf deficit to the five-year average should stay about the same.
The wider range of analyst expectations spanned from 63-80 Bcf.
EIA estimated a 95 Bcf build for the week ended June 21, increasing the overall stocks to 2.533 Tcf.
Bentek Energy's supply/demand model predicts an injection of 79 Bcf for last week, while its pipeline flow model anticipates an addition to stocks of 74 Bcf. Bentek is a unit of Platts.
Citi Futures Perspective analyst Tim Evans, whose estimate of a 67 Bcf is at the lower end of the range, said such an injection would be in "neutral territory." The short-term outlook is more bearish, he said, as above-average injections are expected to mid-July.
The shrinking deficit to the five-year-average "represents an open-ended bearish storage trend consistent with a further intermediate-term decline in price," Evans said.
