The head of the International Energy Agency warned Thursday that theshale gas revolution in North America was unlikely to be replicated elsewherein the world, and that its effect would be more likely felt through anincrease in LNG supplies to the global market.
Speaking in St Petersburg at the launch of the IEA's medium-term gasmarket outlook, IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven said there weremajor obstacles that would impede the development of shale gas in Europe andChina.
So instead, it is the projected start of LNG exports from the US andCanada that will have the biggest impact on global gas markets.
"The North American revolution will impact gas markets more by spillingexports onto the LNG market than by the spread of that revolution itself,"van der Hoeven said.
"The LNG market is tight -- the extra supplies [from North America] willbe welcome. It will enhance energy security," she said.
"The US is moving ahead -- it will not take years. It will be a relevantLNG exporter," she said.
Van der Hoeven also put a dampener of the potential of shale gas inEurope and China.
"China holds very large shale gas reserves; they are there, perhapscomparable to the US, but they are very difficult to access," she said.
"There are obstacles: complex geology, population density, waterquestions and regulatory impediments," she said.
She said that China would overcome these challenges eventually, butthrough 2020, she said Chinese gas production growth would be dominated byother sources such as coalbed methane and tight gas, "but not shale gas."
In Europe, van der Hoeven also said population density, regulatoryobstacles and different geology meant it would likely not mirror the shalegas revolution in the US.
Poland, for example would become a shale gas producer but that theamount it would be able to produce would be very small in comparison withoutput from Eagle Ford in the US, she said.
"But whatever happens with shale gas, be it in Russia, China or the US,it will have an impact on the global industry," she said.
