Styrene monomer traders Thursday said they remained bullish about the outlook for SM in the first quarter of 2013 and expect prices to stay firm even after hitting new record highs on almost a daily basis in December and to date in January.
SM hit a new all-time high Wednesday at $1,737/mt FOB Korea and $1,766/mt CFR China, up $20/mt and %19.50/mt, respectively, from Monday. Margins also remain good, with the spread to feedstock benzene last assessed at $255/mt -- well in profitable territory -- and to petrochemical feedstock naphtha at $777.40/mt, an all-time high.
The last time SM prices surged in a similar fashion -- to $1,667.50/mt FOB Korea on June 9, 2008 -- they tumbled over the following five months to a low of $480/mt FOB Korea on November 24, 2008.
However, traders do not foresee a similar collapse this time.
"The current macro economy is getting better and crude oil is also on an uptrend," one trader said.
Recent data from China points to improving economic conditions in the Asian powerhouse, while the US seems to be avoiding falling off the fiscal cliff. Market players also expect the European economy to improve this year.
Specific factors that will continue to support SM prices include a relatively low inventory level in the Chinese market -- at around 50,500 mt last week -- and the start of scheduled maintenance by several producers in Japan, South Korea and the Middle East over late January to April.
"I think SM will be firm in the first quarter due to bullish benzene and tight supply from SM plant turnarounds," one trader said.
A key factor in the recent price rise in SM is its main feedstock, benzene. Strong demand for benzene from the US and China in the second half of 2012 pushed up prices and forced SM producers, especially in China, to cut operating rates, reducing the supply of SM.
However, some uncertainty remains for the near-term outlook, with Lunar New Year holidays due to start around February 10, during which manufacturers in China typically shut for up to several weeks, and estimates of around 1000,000 mt of arbitrage SM cargoes from the US and Europe expected to arrive in the Far East from H2 January into March.
