Coal's share of the energy mix will continue to rise, with global consumption projected to reach 4.32 billion tons of oil equivalent (toe) by 2017 despite the fossil fuel's slowing growth rate, according to the International Energy Agency Tuesday.
Speaking at the launch of the IEA's annual Medium-term Coal Market Report, IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven said coal would come close to surpassing oil as the world's top energy source within the next few years, with coal demand expected to increase in every region of the world except the US.
She said that the world would burn "around 1.2 billion mt more of coal per year by 2017 compared to today -- equivalent to the current coal consumption of Russia and the US combined."
Under a base-case scenario, the IEA said global coal demand is projected to grow 16.9% from 5.279 billion tce in 2011 to 6.169 billion tce in 2017, or 2.6% per year.
The report also offers a so-called Chinese Slowdown Case scenario to reflect current concern about the impact of Chinese uncertainty on coal markets.
Under this scenario -- in which Chinese economic growth is more bearish than in the base case scenario -- even if Chinese GDP growth were to slow to a 4.6% average over the 2012-17 period, coal demand would still increase both globally and in China, the report said.
The IEA report said that a recent "coal renaissance" in Europe -- driven by low carbon emissions allowance and higher gas prices and oversupply from the US making coal more competitive against gas -- was only temporary.
It said that increasing renewables, coal-plant retirement and more balanced gas and coal prices will decrease European coal consumption.
"All in all, [European] coal demand in 2017 will be 10 million tons coal equivalent (tce) higher than in 2011, as growth in Turkey will offset general decline," the report said.
