Middle Eastern petrochemical producers will continue to enjoy considerable cost advantage compared with their counterparts in Southeast Asia even as a scarcity of gas forces them to shift to other feedstocks, Jaap Kalkman, a partner at German consulting firm Roland Berger, said on Sunday.
"The energy cost [expenditure on power] of a naphtha cracker in the Middle East will be about 50% lower than that of a naphtha-fed cracker in Singapore and Japan," Kalkman, who is also Head of Energy and Chemicals for the Middle East, said. "The feedstock cost for a Middle East naphtha-based producer will be lower as compared to an Asian producer, in the range of 1-10%."
He attributed this to easier access to oil reserves and growing refining capacity in the region.
Platts assessed naphtha at $928.88/mt CFR Japan, Friday. Downstream ethylene was assessed at $1,255/mt CFR NE Asia and $1,210/mt CFR SE Asia.
In a report released Friday, Alembic Global, a New York based global petrochemicals advisory firm placed the average price for naphtha in November for Fareast Asia at $899/mt and the corresponding price for October at $956/mt.
Middle Eastern producers using ethane feedstock to produce ethylene incur a cost of $200-500/mt. "Petrochemical producers in Saudi Arabia who have gas allocation receive gas at a cost of 0.75/MMBtu which means an ethylene production cost of about $200/mt. Iranian petrochemical facilities receive their gas allocation at $1.25/MMBtu which means an ethylene production costs of around $250/mt," another analyst said.
MIXED FEEDSTOCK IS A REALITY IN MIDDLE EAST
All the major petrochemical projects in the region including Petro Rabigh Phase II, Kuwait Petrochemical Industries Company's Olefins 3 and the UAE's Chemaweyaat, all of which will come up over the next five years, plan to use either naphtha-based or mixed-feed crackers.
"In reality, feedstock cost in Saudi Arabia has already risen," Moayyad Al Qurtas, CEO of Riyadh-based petrochemicals producer Tasnee, said at the Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association annual forum held in Dubai late last month.
"Only a small proportion of feedstock being used in petrochemicals industry in Saudi Arabia is ethane. The rest is LPG," Al Qurtas said, explaining the high feedstock prices.
Riyadh-based investment bank Al Rajhi Capital said in a report early this year that gas prices in Saudi Arabia are likely to be raised in 2013. Saudi Industrial Investment Group Managing Director Suliman Al Mandeel said in November that Saudi petrochemical producers were concerned over a likely rise in gas prices that could impact their margins.
Talking of the link between oil and gas prices, Kalkman said: "Over the next 10 years gas prices in the Middle East will have a much stronger link to the global gas markets. This is because the governments will want to provide the benefits of subsidy to those most in need of it and instead of subsidizing gas they will want to provide monetary benefits to a growing populace."
He added that "higher gas prices will mean more revenues for Middle East economies" that can be used to "dole out the monetary benefits."
