The US Energy Information Administration is expected on Wednesday to estimate a natural gas storage withdrawal of between 23 and 27 Bcf for the week that ended Friday, according to a Platts poll of analysts.
The storage data will be released a day earlier than usual, at 12:00 p.m. EST Wednesday, due to the US federal government being closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, EIA said.
A draw within that range stands in stark contrast with a 9-Bcf injection in the corresponding week of 2011 and a 3-Bcf average injection over the past five years, according to EIA data.
As a result, both the 71-Bcf surplus to 12 months ago and the 209-Bcf surplus to the five-year average should shrink.
The wider range of analyst estimates for the storage pull for the week that ended Friday spanned from 17 Bcf to 39 Bcf.
EIA estimated an 18-Bcf draw from storage for the week that ended November 9, reducing overall stocks to 3.911 Tcf.
Gene McGillian, a trader with TFS Energy Futures, said his forecast of a 20-Bcf withdrawal was due to strong heating demand in the US Midwest and Northeast as a result of cooler-than-normal weather, as well as a reflection of power generator demand from some coal-to-gas switching.
The level of switching is below the summer's highs of 5-6 Bcf/day, but it "has not disappeared entirely," McGillian said. The current level of coal-to-gas switching is around 3 Bcf/d on average, McGillian added.
The week that ended Friday was colder than normal, with heating degree days coming in 4% higher than average and 21% higher than in the same period a year ago, according to Baird Equity Research Director Michael Hall, who is calling for a 20-Bcf withdrawal. "This cool weather likely induced some early season heating demand," Hall added.
"Another week of early season withdrawals is positive for the gas market since the typical withdrawal season -- as measured by the five-year average -- does not start until next week," said Hall.
