Prompt prices rose sharply to 65 p/th Thursday morning as colder weather was forecast for the end of October and there was no sign of any deliveries of fresh LNG into the system.
The rise came despite a market that was almost exactly balanced at noon: demand was just 3 million cubic meters above the forecast supply.
Within-day and day-ahead both reached 65 p/th but by 12:15 BST were a little softer, at 64.85 and 64.8 p/th respectively. They had closed at 63.40 p/th and 63.15 p/th Wednesday.
November was at 65.35 p/th shortly before midday but dropped back to 65.20 p/th by 12.15. "It is a storage play," a trader said, as people are looking to buy gas for mid-range storage now and withdrawal at higher prices.
The movements left very little contango in the winter, with Q1 just 2.3 p/th above the prompt, compared with 3 p/th at the close Wednesday.
"There is no hard evidence that LNG is going to come here," said a trader, explaining the rise. "The ships are more likely to come in Q1 than in Q4, so people need storage."
The prompt Zeebrugge-NBP basis is minus 1.75 p/th, which does not leave a lot of incentive to bring gas in through the Interconnector, a trader said, once UK entry has been paid. The pipeline is not expected to flow into the UK Thursday.
