UK system operator National Grid Wednesday forecast the peak gas demand that might be possible over the winter at 516 million cubic meters/day, in its winter outlook report published Wednesday morning.
National Grid said that the forecast allows for high power generation and cold weather.
The 516 million cu m day figure breaks down to: 344 million cu m non-daily metered demand (such as homes and shops), 45 million cu m daily metered (large users and factories), 30 million cu m exports to Ireland, 95 million cu m demand for power generation.
Grid notes that the total does not match up in the figures given here for technical reasons.
The peak is perhaps unlikely to be hit. In past winters demand has rarely exceeded around 450-460 million cu m/day. During last year's Winter 2011/12, the actual lowest demand seen was 209 million cu m and the highest demand day seen was only 421 million cu m.
The highest ever demand day on record was 465 million cu m.
Grid said that the forecasts for Winter 2012/13 demand are largely similar to the weather-corrected demands for 2011/12.
PRICES FAVOR GENERATION WITH COAL
Gas for power generation use is expected to be the marginal generation in 2012/13, with demands similar to 2011/12.
Forward energy prices for the winter "strongly favor" coal rather than gas as the preferred source for power generation, Grid said.
Winter 2012/13 supply forecasts are marginally lower than winter 2011/12, with LNG supplies providing the "greatest uncertainty," Grid said.
Since September the market has been awaiting news of when Qatargas will restart two of its production trains currently out on maintenance, but LNG is also uncertain for the more general reason that cargoes can be diverted, unlike a fixed pipeline.
Grid said Asia would provide competition for LNG.
"Last winter the UK received lower levels of LNG than in winter 2010/11 and our view is that LNG imports will continue to remain suppressed due to high levels of LNG demand in the Far East, notably Japan," Grid said.
Grid points out, however that the commissioning of an onshore pipeline installation at Tirley, Gloucester, will now allow Milford Haven LNG terminals, if they have sufficient LNG supply, to flow gas at up to 86 million cu m/day, up from 68 million cu m/day previously.
UKCS OUTPUT AT 138 MILLION CU M
Grid forecasts UK Continental Shelf gas output for the winter at a maximum of 138 million cu m/day, some 7% lower than the equivalent forecast for Winter 2011/12, and comparable to the highest flow observed last winter of 137 million cu m/day.
Grid for planning purposes assumes 90% of maximum, or a possible UKCS supply of around 124 million cu m/day.
The 7% decline is "typical" of recent years, Grid says. It would have been less than usual, due to new fields, but Grid has assumed a limited output from Elgin/Franklin, the field that suffered a well blow-out earlier in 2012.
Storage deliverability for Winter 2012/13 at 108 million cu m/day is higher than the previous year's 98 million cu m/day, according to Grid, and should increase further as new facilities are commissioned.
