The estimated weekly production margin for a typical US Midwestern dry-mill ethanol plant was 29.97 cents/gal Friday, 10.53 cents, or 26%, below the previous week, mainly on stronger feedstock corn and variable costs.
The estimated weekly ethanol production margin was calculated using data from Platts and government agencies, including average delivered corn cost, dried distiller grain prices, natural gas prices, certain blending costs and ethanol prices.
Estimated fixed costs are based on a 50 million gal/year Midwestern plant with 32 employees, each paid an average annual salary of $47,300.
Both the average estimated delivered feedstock corn cost and dried distillers grain byproduct credit reversed course this week after falling for five straight weeks.
The average estimated delivered feedstock corn cost rose 37.89 cents, or 5.3%, to a three-week high of $7.5161/bushel, while the average estimated dried distillers grain byproduct credit edged up $2.32 to $274.29/st.
The feedstock corn cost, according to sources, was mostly supported this week by the US Department of Agriculture's September 28 Quarterly Grain Stocks report that showed old crop corn inventories at 988 million bushels, down 12% from the same period of 2011.
Variable costs were also higher this week. The estimated denaturant cost rose 4.75 cents from a week ago to $1.9775/gal FOB pipeline. The estimated natural gas cost jumped 36 cents/MMBtu to $3.16/MMBtu. The estimated natural gas cost had not been this high since January, when it was at $3.30/MMBtu.
The denaturant cost was based on Friday's Platts assessment of Conway natural gasoline, which is the Kansas hub, while the natural gas cost was based on the October Platts Chicago ANR 7 pipeline monthly index.
The estimated ethanol price used in calculating the margin was the Platts Chicago Argo ethanol assessment Friday of $2.40/gal, up 4.05 cents, or 1.7%, from the previous week on supply tighthness.
US weekly ethanol production in the reporting week that ended September 28 plunged 24,000 b/d to 785,000 b/d -- the lowest level recorded by the Energy Information Administration -- while weekly ethanol inventories shrank 451,000 barrels to 18.808 million barrels, the lowest since the week ending August 31, the EIA said in its latest weekly report Wednesday.
