Hopes of a radical reform to break Mexico's state oil monopoly appear to have been raised by the latest comments from outgoing President Felipe Calderon, who promised to back the reform effort of his successor.
Enrique Pena Nieto, the victor in the July 1 presidential election, has described oil reform as his "signature issue."
Now Calderon, in comments over the weekend, promised to back Pena's effort in the time he has left in office. The handover to the new president is slated for December 1.
In interviews since his election victory, Pena has given the impression of being a man in a hurry, eager to promote the changes in energy, but also the related reforms in labor and taxes.
Calderon's National Action Party, or PAN, has a long history of enmity with Pena's Institutional Revolutionary, or PRI. So when PAN got a hammering at the polls on July 1, it seemed likely that PAN legislators might be opposed to Pena's proposal, even though the overwhelming majority of them actually support opening up the oil sector to private enterprise.
The PRI, after all, was the main obstacle to such reforms during Calderon's presidency, either blocked them or, as has been the case in energy, severely watering them down.
But Calderon appears to be ready to forgive and forget. At the weekend, Calderon told Spanish daily newspaper El Pais that he is willing to back Pena's reforms. He did emphasize that the PRI and its legislators -- not he -- have to decide, though his power and his prestige are sure to carry considerable weight.
COURT CHALLENGE NOT LIKELY TO UPEND RESULTS
"I presented an energy reform in 2008," he said. In fact, it could still be approved [before his term runs out] as could the fiscal and labor reforms. In many cases, the reforms couldn't be passed simply because the PRI set out roadblocks against them over the years.... I certainly hope that this kind of attitude can be rectified. It's been harmful to the whole nation."
Meanwhile, Pena's victory has been challenged in the courts by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who came second in the voting on behalf of a leftist alliance.
Lopez Obrador claims -- and he has support from at least some members of the PAN -- that Pena's campaign grossly exceeded the agreed to spending limits. In addition, he says the media was biased.
But even if he wins his court case, Lopez Obrador will only achieve a pyrrhic victory, according to experts in electoral law. They say that the PRI might face penalties but the votes will stand.
Pena lacks a majority in Congress, as a late electoral surge by Lopez Obrador upset predictions. And Pena has been seen as facing not only the opposition of the left, which traditionally opposes Pemex reforms, but also the mistrust of the PAN.
As well, a relatively large group of minority parties will be waiting to hear his proposals to provide a return for their support for his reforms. And, of course, many of his own party are sure to oppose them.
