According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market has shown a narrow upward trend. From December 15th to 22nd, the price of MTBE increased from 6,367 RMB/ton to 6,467 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.57% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 1.54%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.45%.
Dongying Shenchi and Lihua Yiisobutane dehydrogenation have temporarily stopped production, resulting in a significant reduction in resource supply. At the same time, Dongying Shenchi has signed new export orders, with manufacturer inventory prioritizing exports and domestic sales temporarily suspended. Under the reduction in resource supply, manufacturers have a strong willingness to push up prices, and the good international crude oil trend has also boosted the market's upward momentum, with various regions pushing up prices to varying degrees.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: Within the same period, international crude oil futures prices have slightly rebounded and consolidated, but overall they are still operating at a low level. As of December 21st, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 79.16 RMB/barrel, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars or 0.7%.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, international crude oil futures have stopped falling and rebounded, while the decline in the refined oil market in Shandong region has slowed down. The gasoline market is stable, with a slight decline, and businesses are maintaining on-demand demand for MTBE. The decline in the gasoline market has provided moderate support for the MTBE market. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Wax Chemical, Dongying Qifa, Haite Weiye, Debao Road, and Qingzhou Tianan are still in shutdown. The Dongying Shenchi facility was temporarily shut down on December 17th, while the Lihua Yiisobutane dehydrogenation facility was temporarily shut down on December 17th, resulting in a significant decrease in production compared to the previous month. Next week, Dongying Shenchi and Lihua Yiisobutane dehydrogenation units will soon return to normal.
As of the close on December 21st, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $24.26 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $852.24-854.24 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has decreased by $34/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $945.49-945.99/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market has decreased by $1.49/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $886.96-887.31/ton (249.85-249.95 cents/gallon).
In the future market forecast, there is an expectation of an increase in resource supply, and in terms of gasoline terminal demand, it will soon usher in the New Year holiday. Business owners have a certain enthusiasm for replenishing inventory. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations in the short term.
