According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market fluctuates within a narrow range. From November 13th to 20th, the price of MTBE dropped from 6,575 RMB/ton to 6,550 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.38% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 13.16%, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.15%.
Compared to the previous cycle, international crude oil has rebounded, and the mentality of the industry is highly supported. At the same time, the cost of raw materials has increased, and heterogeneous devices are on the edge of profit and loss. Manufacturers are also not willing to give up profits. In terms of downstream gasoline, manufacturers have staged restocking and still have some enthusiasm for purchasing MTBE. In the northern region, manufacturers have relatively smooth shipments, but there is still a large supply of resources due to high operating rates of devices. The market is not easy to push up, and the MTBE market is mainly stable and organized.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: During the same period (November 13th to 20th), the international crude oil price has rebounded. Currently, the logic of crude oil trading is still a supply-demand game, and the pressure of supply tension has eased as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has not shown a worsening trend of expansion. At present, market attention is more focused on various economic data indicators, which will become a barometer of demand prospects. As of the close on November 17th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures' main contract was $80.61/barrel, an increase of $3.19 or 4.1%.
In terms of demand and gasoline, as the temperature in the north decreases, the increase in private car travel rate promotes retail gas station shipments; On the contrary, the weakening of terminal demand has led to a weakening of the purchasing and sales atmosphere in the diesel market, with middle and downstream merchants purchasing on demand while consuming inventory, resulting in a mild market trading atmosphere. The gasoline market tends to be strong, providing some support for the MTBE market. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Waxing and Dongying Qifa are still in shutdown. The Maoming Shihua facility resumed work on November 11th, with normal shipments. The Qingzhou Tian'an facility started operation at low load, resulting in an increase in production this week compared to last week. In the short term, the load of the Qingzhou Tian'an plant may increase, so production may continue to increase next week. The supply side of MTBE is influenced by bearish factors.
As of the close on November 17th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $46.68/ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $849.37- $851.37/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $15/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1,117.74- $1,118.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $49.13/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $906.66-907.02/ton (255.40-255.50 US cents per gallon).
In the future market forecast, the fundamentals are still relatively empty, resource supply is relatively abundant, and gasoline demand is still weak. In addition, manufacturers have been experiencing poor shipments for several days, resulting in an increase in inventory. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the narrow consolidation of the domestic MTBE market is the main trend.
