According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market has unilaterally declined. From November to November 8th, the price of MTBE has dropped from 6,787 RMB/ton to 6,637 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 2.21% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 16.25%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.56%.
The international crude oil market has continued to decline, and the mentality of the industry has been suppressed. The MTBE market has once again entered a downward trend. At the same time, export orders are extremely limited, and the pressure of domestic oversupply continues to exist. The demand side continues to be weak, and the gasoline refining efficiency has declined. The enthusiasm of the industry for purchasing related gasoline raw materials is not good, so manufacturers are facing a cooling down in their shipments, mainly allowing for profit and volume.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil, the oil price has fallen to its lowest point in the past three months. The main reason is that the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has sparked demand concerns and eased supply tension. As of the close on November 7th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures' main contract was $81.61 /barrel, a decrease of $3.57 or 4.2%.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, the operating rate of ground refining atmospheric and vacuum distillation is relatively low, and the substantial improvement in gasoline terminal demand is limited. Short term MTBE demand side is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Wax Chemical, Dongying Qifa, and Maoming Shihua are still in parking. Qingzhoutian Installation has plans to start construction, and there are expectations of an increase in resource supply. MTBE's supply side is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on November 7th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $18.32/ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $923.05-925.05/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has decreased by $11/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1,069.99- $1,070.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $3.62/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $861.65-862/ton (242.72-242.82 cents per gallon).
In the future, it is predicted that MTBE may still be weak in the later stage, but the downward trend will be significantly alleviated, with sporadic price adjustments being the main focus. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the narrow consolidation of the domestic MTBE market is the main trend.
