According to the cobalt market analysis system of SunSirs, as of September 30th, the cobalt price was 255,000 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.84% compared to September 1st, when the cobalt price was 250,400 RMB/ton. The cobalt price in September changed from the downward trend in August, and the cobalt price rebounded and stabilized. The installation volume of ternary batteries increased, and the demand for cobalt in the market had rebounded. In September, cobalt prices rebounded from a decline.
The sales of new energy vehicles rose
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 843,000 and 846,000 units, respectively, with a month on month increase of 4.7% and 8.5%, a year-on-year increase of 22% and 27%, and a market share of 32.8%. According to the analysis of the national passenger car market in August released by the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars reached 798,000 units in August, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and a month on month increase of 8.2%. July and August are the traditional off-season for new energy vehicle sales, but with the "100 city linkage and 1,000 towns and 10,000 counties" and some new energy vehicle companies significantly ceding profits, the overall trend of off-season was not weak. The performance of the new energy vehicle market was better than market expectations, and September, as the momentum node at the end of the quarter, was still expected to perform well in the car market. However, the sale of profits had overdrawn the demand for new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter ahead of schedule, and the growth rate of demand for new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter may not be as expected. Cobalt market demand rebound may fall short of expectations.
The loading of ternary batteries increased
According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in August, China's power battery installation volume was 34.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 25.7% and a month on month increase of 8.2%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries was 10.8GWh, accounting for 31.0% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month on month increase of 2.3%; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 24.1GWh, accounting for 69.0% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 39.7% and a month on month increase of 11.0%. The installation volume of ternary batteries in August increased both month-on-month and year-and-year, but the growth rate significantly slowed down compared to July. Overall, the growth of ternary batteries had led to an increase in demand for cobalt, but the growth was not as expected, and future growth expectations were poor. The continuous increase in cobalt prices lacked momentum.
Cobalt market supply situation
According to the 2023 semi-annual report data of Huayou Cobalt Industry, the shipment volume of positive electrode materials in the first half of 2023 was about 46,000 tons, of which the total shipment volume of ternary positive electrode materials was 40,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 23.11%; The shipment volume of lithium cobalt oxide was 5,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.18%; The shipment volume of cobalt products was approximately 20,500 tons (including entrusted processing and internal self supply), an increase of 10.96% year-on-year. According to the financial report data of Luoyang Molybdenum Industry in the first half of 2023, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry achieved a cobalt production of 19,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 85.55%. Among them, cobalt production achieved 39.2% of the annual guidance median. The reason for not completing the production median was that TFM mixed ore was not put into production in the first half of the year. As the project was gradually put into operation and fully produced, there would be an increase in the second half of the year, the annual production target might be achieved. The production of major cobalt enterprises had increased significantly, and the supply of cobalt in the market had increased significantly faster than the growth rate of demand. The oversupply of cobalt in the market had intensified.
Overview and outlook
According to data analysts from SunSirs, the sales of new energy vehicles increased, while the proportion of ternary batteries decreased, and the demand for cobalt in the market had not increased as expected; The production of major cobalt enterprises had increased significantly, and the expected growth in the future was accelerating, leading to an increase in cobalt market supply. Overall, the cobalt market had experienced rapid supply growth and poor demand growth. The oversupply in the cobalt market had intensified, and the cobalt price had hit the bottom of the cost price. The space for cobalt price decline was limited, and the support for cobalt price rise still existed, but the sustained upward momentum was insufficient. The cobalt price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the future.
