According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the recent trend of natural rubber in China was fluctuating and downward last week. The spot rubber market in China was around 12,680 RMB/ton on September 25th and around 12,780 RMB/ton on September 18th, a decrease of 0.78%.
Influencing factors:
1. Limited output, reduced inventory at Qingdao port
On the supply side, it is still in the peak season of rubber cutting, and the production areas are affected by more periodic rainfall. Rainfall in Thailand, Malaysia and other production areas has decreased, and raw material production has increased; The impact of rainfall on the Hainan production area remains unchanged, while the Yunnan production area is affected by rainfall and local glue production is hindered. In terms of inventory, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7th, China imported a total of 648,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2023, an increase of 9.5% from 592,000 tons in the same period of 2022. The inventory of spot glue in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone has decreased, and the outbound rate is greater than the inbound rate, which provides some support for the Tianjiao market.
2. Tire companies have low intention of catching up with high operating rates
On the demand side, rubber tire manufacturers are currently steadily scheduling production, and tire processing plants continue to operate at high operating rates. The operating rate of semi steel tires is high and relatively stable; The operating rate of all steel tires has returned to normal, prices have increased, and sales are good, which is beneficial for enterprises to reduce inventory. As the Double Festival approaches, tire companies are hunting for bargains to stock up, and their willingness to pursue higher purchases is not strong.
Future Market Forecast:
Regarding the future market, as rainfall decreases, a large amount of raw materials will be produced in the future, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market will expand. The current export situation of tire enterprises is good, and factories are operating at a high level. During the peak consumer season, the natural rubber market has some positive demand support. In addition, as the Double Festival approaches, tire companies are hunting for bargains to stock up, and their willingness to pursue higher purchases is not strong. It is expected that the natural rubber market will be dominated by fluctuations and consolidation in the near future.
