According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, stainless steel rose first and then fell this week. As of September 8th, the daily average price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plates 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (with a tolerance of 0.91) was 14,150 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.4% from 14,207.14 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 6.02%.
According to the price difference analysis tool of SunSirs, the price trends of nickel and stainless steel were mostly similar, with upstream nickel affecting the price of downstream stainless steel.
Analysis review
This week's total stainless steel inventory was 103.3 tons, a decrease of 1.04% compared to last week, with both cold rolled and hot rolled inventories showing a slight decline.
Supply and demand side: In August 2023, the production of 300 series crude steel from 43 domestic stainless steel factories reached 1.7498 million tons, an increase of 3.5% month on month and 34.2% year-on-year; In September, the production was 1.783 million tons, an increase of 1.9% month on month and 26.6% year-on-year. Indonesia's crude steel production in August was 415,000 tons, an increase of 48.2% month on month and a decrease of 0.2% year-on-year; In September, production was 400,000 tons, a decrease of 3.6% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. There was an expectation of a golden September and silver October peak season in the market, but there had not been a significant increase in terminal demand. Just in needed demand procurement accounted for the majority, and the futures had driven the rapid rise of spot goods. However, recently, the goods concentrated arriving at steel mills, and spot buying was relatively cautious.
After Indonesia's RKAB switched to the old system, the approval of nickel ore quotas became stricter, and resources at the mining end were tight. Some Indonesian nickel iron plants purchased nickel ore from the Philippines, and the main mining areas in the Philippines also entered the rainy season, leading to an increase in nickel ore prices.
Market outlook
The cost of stainless steel rose, squeezing the profits of steel mills. However, in September, high scheduled production was still maintained. Overall, costs supported, but high prices were difficult to transmit to the terminal. It is expected that stainless steel will experience a weak and volatile trend in the short term.
