Price trend
According to data from SunSirs, in August, the price of seamless tubes first increased and then decreased. At the beginning of the month, the quotation for 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was 4,772.5 RMB/ton, but at the end of the month, it dropped to 4,705 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.41% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.12%.
Analysis review
In terms of raw materials: In August, the prices of tube billets fluctuated and decreased, with a cumulative decrease of 20-140 RMB/ton. The coke started a round of reduction, but the subsequent mining accident resulted in some coke companies not accepting this round of reduction, and the overall price of raw materials remained at a high level.
In terms of demand: The cumulative growth rate of transactions in the first eight months of 2023 compared to last year was less than 2%, lower than expected. The significantly weaker than expected January was mainly due to the peak prevalence rate after optimizing epidemic prevention. The year-on-year contraction in transactions in August was mainly due to the impact of "typhoons, floods" and some abroad bearish factors. Market confidence was weaker, and downstream construction progress was slow. The transactions in August were decreased by about 4.24% year-on-year overall.
In terms of exports: In July 2023, China exported 448,600 tons of seamless tubes, an increase of 0.58% month on month and 4.18% year-on-year; From January to July, China exported 3.4461 million tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year increase of 42.87%.
Market outlook
In summary, since July, domestic economic policies were gradually introduced, and macroeconomic policy regulation had increased. Efforts were made to expand domestic demand, boost confidence, prevent risks, and continuously promote the continuous improvement of economic performance. The overall demand for seamless tubes had been average since 2023, with weak market confidence. The mechanical industry was in a bottom-up recovery range, with manufacturing enterprises' production and operation expectations slightly improving. The demand uncertainty related to infrastructure and real estate was the highest. However, in the context of the current policy intensive introduction, during the peak season of gold September, and silver October, for demand, there may be a certain boost in demand. It is expected that the price of seamless tubes will fluctuate and rise in September.
