According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the propylene oxide market fluctuated and rose in the first half of 2023. On January 1, 2023, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 8,966.67 RMB/ton. As of June 30, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9,600.00 RMB/ton, with a market increase of 7.06% within six months.
Analysis review
Q1: In January, the cost support was average, with no pressure on the supply side, and the demand side mainly followed up just in needed. Before the festival, downstream stocking was concentrated, and the propylene oxide market rose narrowly. In February, the raw material propylene experienced a narrow range of fluctuations, the price of raw material liquid chlorine went up and cost support strengthened. Some units underwent load reduction and maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply. The demand side remained on the sidelines and followed up, and the propylene oxide market was operating to be stronger. In March, there was no pressure on the supply side, supporting the rise of market prices. In late March, cost support weakened, and shipments from factories in production were average. The market trading atmosphere was light, and the propylene oxide market was weaker.
Q2: The cost side had little impact in April, while the demand side remained flat and followed up, the market went down in a narrow range. In May, the propylene oxide market fluctuated and rose slightly. In the first half of the month, there were some fluctuations on the supply side, and the market supply and demand pattern was tight. The demand side watched and followed moderately, while the supply side had no pressure to support the stronger operation of the propylene oxide market. In the second half of the month, as the price of raw material propylene fell, the raw material liquid chlorine fluctuated at a low level. In addition, the supply side capacity utilization rate slightly rebounded, and the demand side reduced and followed up, leading to a weakening of the propylene oxide market. In June, the demand side mainly followed up with a moderate amount on demand, while changes in supply side devices affected the market, the propylene oxide market fluctuated and declined.
Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of June 30, the average spot price of domestic propylene was 6,518.25 RMB/ton, a decrease of 10.03% from the 7,244.60 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year.
Market outlook
Entering July, the propylene oxide market has stabilized and consolidated, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Currently, there is some support on the cost side, and supply side is mainly stable. Downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly decreased. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be on the sidelines for consolidation, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.
