According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall performance of thermal coal continues to be weak. On July 13th, the energy index stood at 913 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 41.51% from the highest point of 1,561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and an increase of 78.67% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)
In terms of origin, the coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, while state-owned large mines actively guarantee supply. The price adjustment of coal mines is still mainly based on price reduction, and most coal mines have low inventory pressure. Currently, sales have not shown any improvement.
In terms of downstream ports, on July 11th, the coal prices in the port market were slightly reduced, and the overall port prices were weak and trading volume was average. With the hot weather and the arrival of peak summer, the daily consumption of the power plant has accelerated. However, with the replenishment of long-term coal and imported coal, the overall inventory is still in a high state. Traders are cautious and cautious, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. A small number of non electrical industries such as cement and chemical industries have released demand, but due to high inventory, the main focus of trading is still on hard demand.
On July 13th, the National Energy Administration released data on overall social electricity consumption for June. In June, the total electricity consumption in society was 775.1 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. By industry, the Primary sector of the economy consumed 12.2 billion kilowatt hours of electricity, up 14.0% year on year; The electricity consumption of the Secondary sector of the economy was 502.7 billion kWh, up 2.3% year on year; The electricity consumption of the Tertiary sector of the economy was 149.4 billion kWh, up 10.1% year on year; The daily electricity consumption of urban and rural residents reached 110.8 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. From January to June, the total electricity consumption of the whole society reached 4307.6 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. By industry, the electricity consumption of the Primary sector of the economy was 57.8 billion kWh, up 12.1% year on year; The electricity consumption of the Secondary sector of the economy was 2867 billion kWh, up 4.4% year on year; The electricity consumption of the Tertiary sector of the economy was 763.1 billion kWh, up 9.9% year on year; The daily electricity consumption of urban and rural residents reached 619.7 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%.
Analysts from SunSirs believe that the coal mine maintains normal production in terms of origin and overall supply is basically stable. In terms of downstream ports, due to the recent hot weather, there has been an increase in demand for power plants during peak summer. However, power plants generally maintain high inventory, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. Overall, it is expected that the price of thermal coal will rise weakly in the later stage, and the operation will still be weak. Specifically, it depends on downstream market demand.
