The current round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on July 12, and the zero selling price of refined oil has once again increased. The 2023 retail price adjustment has gone through "five rises, six falls, and two stalls". During the cycle, the crude oil market has risen, and the rate of change remains positive. This round of refined oil retail prices will experience the sixth increase within the year.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international crude oil change rate remains positive. As of the 11th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.83 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $79.40 per barrel. The favorable factors of the international oil market in this round of price adjustment cycle are supportive. On the one hand, the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) have increased their supply concerns by reducing production. Saudi Arabia and Russia have announced new production reduction measures, and the Saudi Energy Ministry has announced that it will extend the policy of reducing production by an additional 1 million barrels/day in July to August; The Russian Ministry of Energy has also confirmed a reduction of 500,000 barrels per day in oil exports in August, bringing the total production reduction of the OPEC+ alliance to approximately 5 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 5% of global oil demand. On the other hand, the United States Department of Energy's plan to replenish the strategic oil reserve also warmed up the oil market. On July 7, the US announced that it would purchase an additional 6 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the strategic oil reserve. The procurement plan will be carried out in October and November. Finally, the US dollar strengthened, Asian demand growth boosted international oil prices, supported by demand in the summer peak oil season, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data report on Wednesday showed a rapid decline in crude oil inventories. Multiple positive factors support the upward trend of international oil prices. As of the 12th, the change rate of crude oil varieties was 1.98% on the 10th working day. It is expected that each ton of gasoline will increase by 155 RMB, and diesel will increase by 150 RMB, equivalent to an increase of 0.12 RMB per liter of 92# gasoline, 0.13 RMB per liter of 95# gasoline, and 0.13 RMB per liter of 0# diesel.
Gasoline: On June 30, the State Taxation Administration issued Announcement No. 11 of 2023 to unify the policy of levying consumption tax on a variety of raw materials, including mixed aromatics. After the announcement of this policy, the gasoline market ushered in a rapid rise, with the gasoline price rising by 200-300 RMB/ton. With the weakening of policy influence, the gasoline market gradually recovered its rationality, and the gasoline market price fell back. The operating rate of Shandong Refinery has slightly declined, with a slight decrease in supply. The operating rate of Shandong Refinery is around 61.5%. With the emergence of hot weather and an increase in summer outings, the usage rate of private car air conditioning has increased, and gasoline demand has been guaranteed. The gasoline market still has support.
In terms of diesel: Shandong local refining enterprises have experienced a slight decline in production, with a decrease in supply. In addition, supported by favorable policy news, diesel market prices have increased. In terms of demand, the increase in high temperature and rainy weather in many parts of the country has limited the construction of outdoor industries, mines, and infrastructure. The demand for agricultural oil has weakened, and the demand for diesel has not changed much. Companies are very cautious in purchasing in the market, and the market buying and selling atmosphere is light, which has not affected the increase in diesel prices.
In the future, tight supply in the short term will still affect the market. At the same time, the unstable geopolitical situation and the potential risk of a global economic recession caused by the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate hike will lead to a downward trend in demand. Many factors will exacerbate the volatility of the oil market, and the range of volatility may be wider than before. In terms of gasoline, the impact of high temperature weather in summer has led to an increase in the use of car air conditioners, and there is still support for the gasoline market demand; In terms of diesel, due to the impact of high temperatures and rainy weather, the operating rate of outdoor operations is relatively low, and it is expected that the diesel market trend will be mainly volatile.
