According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, thermal coal fell first and then rose last week, with overall consolidation and operation. On June 15th, the energy index stood at 887 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 43.18% from the cycle's highest point of 1561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 73.58% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)
In terms of origin, the coal mines in the production area have maintained normal production, and the transportation situation has improved compared to before. The purchasing enthusiasm of coal mines in the main production areas has increased, and market sentiment has improved.
In terms of downstream ports, port prices fell first and then rose last week. At the beginning of the week, downstream purchases were mainly based on demand, and the price of thermal coal at ports increased slightly over the weekend. The main reason for the increase is that as the weather heats up and peak summer approaches, power plant inventory drops and demand increases.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, coal prices across the country continued to decline mainly in early June. The specific price changes of each kind of coal are as follows: the price of Anthracite (washing block, volatile matter≤8%) is 1,241.4 RMB/ton, down 128.6 RMB/ton or 9.4% from the previous period. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 596.3 RMB/ton, a decrease of 94.4 RMB/ton or 13.7% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dachun (a high-quality coal blend with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) was 687.9 RMB/ton, a decrease of 107.8 RMB/ton or 13.5% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youmian (high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal) is 785.6 RMB/ton, a decrease of 114.4 RMB/ton or 12.7% compared to the previous period.
SunSirs analysts believe that the trading atmosphere for thermal coal in terms of origin has improved compared to the previous period. In terms of downstream ports, due to the recent hot weather, there has been an increase in demand for power plants during peak summer. However, non electricity demand has not shown signs of improvement in the near future, and procurement is still mainly based on demand. And as the quotation increases, there may be resistance in downstream delivery. It is expected that the price of thermal coal in China will mainly be consolidated and operated in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.
