After the New Year's Day, the price of gasoline and diesel rose, and the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 8,130 RMB/ton as of January 9, up 8.72% from January 1; The price of 0# diesel oil in China is 7,353 RMB/ton, up 2.417% from the price of the first day. The Spring Festival has boosted the market of refined oil, and the gasoline market has gained momentum.
Cost: After the New Year's Day, the international crude oil price declined as a whole. As of January 9, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 74.63 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 79.65 dollars/barrel. The expectation of economic recession remains unchanged, and the tightening policy of the Federal Reserve is likely to continue. The continued tightening monetary policy of the Federal Reserve raises the risk that the United States and major developed economies in the world will fall into recession, which will then depress fuel demand and put pressure on oil prices. The winter snowstorm weather in the United States is still fermenting, leading to the frustration of the local aviation industry. The cancellation of large-scale flights has caused serious damage to the aviation coal market, but also has a negative impact on self-driving travel, and the demand for gasoline has been depressed; In addition, the snowstorms in many places reduced the crude oil processing capacity of North America, resulting in the accumulation of crude oil, and then suppressed the oil price. In addition, the risk that the global economy will fall into recession in 2023 is increasing. The inflation level of western developed economies is high, and it is difficult to tighten monetary policy or exit in the short term. This will harm the global economy. The negative impact will affect the decline of crude oil prices, and the cost side will be negative for the domestic refined oil market.
Supply side: The operating rate of Shandong refineries has increased recently, the supply side has increased, and the supply of resources in the main refineries has been normal. However, the pressure on the main refineries to ship has been significantly reduced recently, and the dealers and terminal stock have increased, and the price of gasoline has risen significantly. Recently, the average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units in Shandong's main refineries has risen to about 70%, and the manufacturers have no inventory backlog. Therefore, the supply of refined oil resources is normal, the operators' intention to enter the market has increased, the market buying and selling atmosphere is hot, and the prices of gasoline and diesel have risen.
Demand: With the arrival of the Spring Festival transportation peak, residents' travel has increased significantly, domestic gasoline demand has increased, and the increase in gasoline has been relatively large, with strong momentum in the short term. In terms of diesel oil, the demand for diesel oil has not changed much. In winter, the construction of outdoor mining, infrastructure and other industries has maintained a low level. The activity of logistics industry has increased before the Spring Festival, and the downstream demand for diesel oil has increased slightly. However, in general, the outdoor oil enterprises have limited construction, the demand for diesel oil has not performed well, and the increase of diesel oil price has been limited.
Aftermarket forecast: Chen Ling, product oil analyst of the Business Agency, believes that the short-term supply pressure is heavy, and the demand side is also facing greater pressure, and the oil market may maintain a weak trend in the near future. However, in the long run, with the increase of OPEC+ production restriction policy or adjustment, the impact of the decline in Russian oil exports will play a role, supply and demand will seek to rebalance, and there is still hope that the oil price will return to a relatively high level. In terms of domestic supply, the overall operating rate of main refineries and local refineries has maintained, and the output of gasoline and diesel is relatively stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, residents' travel has increased significantly, and demand has driven the gasoline market up. In terms of diesel fuel, due to the impact of the Spring Festival, the operating rate of large industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries is expected to decline, and the demand for diesel fuel has not improved, and the price or trend of diesel fuel market will remain stable in China in the later period.
